Higher costs, El Niño fears threaten Bangladesh’s crucial winter harvest
For Mohammad Shakil, a farmer in Bogura’s Shibganj upazila, the coming Boro rice season is already proving more expensive than the last. He has yet to see what the weather will bring.
Last season, Shakil cultivated paddy on 120 decimals of land, paying 60 taka per decimal for irrigation through an electric pump. This year, the same service costs 80 taka. Diesel-powered irrigation, which previously cost 100 taka per decimal, now costs between 130 and 140 taka.
His irrigation bill alone is expected to rise by 30–40%. Fertilisers, pesticides and farm labour have also become more expensive. But the prices he receives for his crops have shown little improvement.
“We used to pay 500 taka to labourers for transplanting paddy, but now it costs 650–700 taka. Pesticides have also become more expensive. Yet we do not get fair prices for our produce,” Shakil told Daily Waadaa.
Coarse rice, he said, sells for 700–900 taka per maund, while finer varieties fetch no more than 1,200–1,300 taka.
His predicament reflects a broader problem facing Bangladesh’s agricultural sector as the country enters its Rabi season, which began on October 16.
The season accounts for much of the country’s production of Boro rice, wheat, maize, potatoes, onions, pulses, oilseeds and winter vegetables. Boro, the country’s principal irrigated rice crop, is particularly important to national food supplies.
This year, farmers face two pressures at once: a sharp increase in production costs and the possibility of an unusually warm, dry winter associated with changing weather patterns and concerns over El Niño.
Agricultural economists warn that the combination could reduce farmers’ profits, disrupt crop production and eventually push food prices higher.
A costly season before planting begins
The immediate pressure comes from energy prices.
Diesel is essential to Bangladesh’s agricultural economy. It powers irrigation pumps, tractors, harvesters and threshing machines. It is also used to transport crops from farms to markets.
In September, the government raised diesel prices to 135 taka a litre from 115 taka. An earlier increase on April 18 had taken the price from 100 taka to 115 taka.
Together, the two increases have added 35 taka to the price of a litre of diesel in just five months, a 35% rise.
Electricity tariffs also increased by 16–19% in June, adding to the expenses of farmers who use electric irrigation pumps.
The scale of agriculture’s dependence on energy is considerable.
According to the Bangladesh Agricultural Development Corporation, the country has 754 deep tubewells, 1,039,337 shallow tubewells and 184,384 low-lift pumps. An estimated 1.6 million small diesel-powered irrigation pumps, commonly called shallow machines, are also in operation.
Agriculture Ministry estimates show that Bangladesh has approximately 1.9 million agricultural machines, around 75% of which run on diesel.
Of the country’s annual diesel consumption of roughly 4.35 million tonnes, agriculture accounts for 1.044 million tonnes, or 24%.
The increase in fuel prices is therefore likely to affect almost every stage of cultivation, from preparing land and irrigating fields to harvesting and transporting produce.
Professor Jahangir Alam Khan, a former president of the Bangladesh Agricultural Economists Association, estimates that production costs during the Rabi and Boro seasons could rise by 15–20%.
Higher energy costs also tend to increase the prices of other agricultural inputs, he said. Farmers are already reporting difficulties obtaining fertilisers at reasonable prices.
“Farmers face higher production costs but do not receive fair prices for their produce. They could face a difficult season this time,” he told Waadaa.
He called for comprehensive government support, warning that additional production losses caused by adverse weather could create further pressure on food supplies.
The Department of Agricultural Extension has set a target of cultivating Boro rice on 5.055 million hectares this season.
Other targets include 287,000 hectares of wheat, 561,000 hectares of winter maize, 303,000 hectares of onions, 464,000 hectares of potatoes and 687,000 hectares of vegetables.
Oilseeds are targeted for 1.268 million hectares and pulses for 547,000 hectares.
Meeting those targets, however, will depend not only on farmers’ ability to afford production but also on the weather over the coming months.
A warmer winter, with less rain
Bangladesh’s Meteorological Department has forecast below-normal rainfall for October through December, following a September in which precipitation was already 17% below average.
Winter temperatures could also be slightly higher than normal, with fewer or less intense cold waves.
Those changes carry different risks depending on the crop for farmers.
Lower rainfall could increase irrigation requirements. Higher temperatures could interfere with the development of wheat and other winter crops. Prolonged dense fog could create conditions favourable to certain crop diseases.
Md Bazlur Rashid, a meteorologist and climate researcher at the Bangladesh Meteorological Department, said the country had already experienced considerable weather variability this year.
Excessive rainfall in March and April was followed by flooding in the haor regions. Exceptionally heavy rainfall caused flooding in Chattogram in July.
He said El Niño was contributing to changes in weather patterns worldwide, although its effects vary by region.
El Niño occurs when sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean become unusually warm. The phenomenon can alter atmospheric circulation, influencing rainfall and temperature patterns across large parts of the world.
Its precise effects on Bangladesh remain uncertain. Local weather systems, seasonal variations and the timing of temperature changes will determine how individual crops respond.
Professor Abu Noman Faruk Ahmed of Sher-e-Bangla Agricultural University’s Department of Plant Pathology said weather conditions associated with the 2023–24 El Niño episode had damaged potato and onion production, with consequences extending into agricultural markets.
He fears similar problems could emerge this season.
“If dense fog persists for several consecutive days, the incidence of late blight in potatoes could increase, along with the risk of rot,” he told Waadaa.
Potatoes are particularly vulnerable to late blight under favourable moisture and temperature conditions. The disease can spread rapidly through fields and cause substantial losses if not detected and controlled early.
Wheat faces a different problem.
The crop requires relatively cool temperatures during important stages of growth. Excessive warmth can shorten its development period and reduce yields.
Ahmed said the risks could be reduced through timely planting, appropriate crop management and advance warnings based on weather forecasts.
But farmers would need access to reliable information early enough to act on it.
For Boro rice, every dry spell has a price
The outlook is particularly consequential for Boro rice, Bangladesh’s largest irrigated rice crop.
Cultivation generally begins around November, with harvesting extending into April or May. Unlike rain-fed Aman rice, Boro depends heavily on irrigation throughout much of its growing cycle.
That makes the cost and availability of water central to production.
Niaz Md Farhat Rahman, principal scientific officer and head of the Agricultural Statistics Division at the Bangladesh Rice Research Institute, said a rainfall deficit would increase farmers’ dependence on irrigation.
“Had there been sufficient rainfall, farmers might have needed one or two fewer rounds of irrigation. A rainfall deficit means they will have to irrigate more frequently,” he told Waadaa.
With diesel and electricity prices already substantially higher, additional irrigation could further increase production costs.
Temperature changes could also affect yields.
Rahman, who researches weather and climate change at the institute’s Agromet Lab, said excessive heat during rice’s reproductive stage could disrupt flowering. High humidity could increase the incidence of certain diseases.
“The actual impact of El Niño will depend on regional rainfall patterns, temperature changes, crop growth stages, soil conditions and water availability,” he said.
He recommended closer monitoring of seasonal forecasts and adjustments to irrigation schedules, sowing dates, transplanting times and other crop management practices.
Recent rainfall records illustrate the difficulties farmers face in planning around increasingly uneven weather.
According to meteorological data, Bangladesh experienced no significant rainfall from the second week of November 2025 until the first week of March 2026.
Rainfall then rose sharply.
March recorded 38% more rainfall than normal, followed by a 78% surplus in April and a 7.5% surplus in May.
June brought another reversal, with rainfall falling 30% below normal. July recorded a 37% surplus, but much of the rain fell within a relatively short period.
Such fluctuations can damage crops even when total seasonal rainfall appears adequate.
Heavy downpours can flood fields and destroy standing crops. Long dry intervals increase irrigation demand and place additional pressure on groundwater and surface-water supplies.
For farmers already struggling with higher fuel costs, the timing of rainfall can be as important as the total amount.
The 2023–24 season demonstrated how weather disruptions can affect food markets. Unusual temperatures, heatwaves and winter rainfall damaged several crops, contributing to price volatility.
Potato prices rose sharply during that period, eventually prompting imports.
Ahmed said adverse weather could not be prevented, but better preparation could reduce the damage.
“Farmers need to be made aware of the risks, and weather-based advice must reach them in time. This would help minimise crop losses,” he said.
The dilemma of farm prices and food security
The economic challenge extends beyond the coming harvest. Higher production costs create a difficult choice for policymakers.
If farmers cannot recover their expenses through crop sales, they may reduce cultivation, switch to other crops or leave agriculture altogether.
But if food prices rise enough to compensate producers, low-income households could face additional pressure on their already constrained budgets.
Professor Md Jahangir Alam of Bangladesh Agricultural University’s Department of Agribusiness and Marketing said the government needed to address both sides of the problem.
Farmers must receive sufficient returns to remain in agriculture, he said, while consumers must be protected from food prices that undermine their purchasing power.
“Agriculture is already a low-profit, high-risk occupation. Farmers who incur losses can move to other professions to earn a living. We must find ways to keep them in agriculture,” he told Waadaa.
The challenge is particularly acute in a country where millions of households depend directly or indirectly on agricultural production, and where changes in the prices of rice, potatoes, onions and vegetables can quickly affect household spending.
Economists say assistance with irrigation, access to fertilisers at fair prices, timely agricultural advice and measures to improve farmers’ returns will be important during the coming months.
Jahangir said that even if higher diesel and electricity prices were driven by international markets and geopolitical developments, the government needed to prevent those increases from undermining agricultural production.
“Even if diesel and electricity prices rise because of international market conditions and geopolitical developments, we must ensure that agriculture and the food system are not adversely affected,” he said.
For Shakil in Bogura, those wider policy questions have a more immediate meaning.
He is preparing to grow another crop with irrigation, labour and pesticide costs already substantially higher than last year. The price he will receive for his rice remains uncertain.
And this season, so does the weather.
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