The race to become the next United Nations secretary-general has entered its decisive phase without a consensus candidate.
Costa Rica's Rebeca Grynspan has secured substantial support in informal Security Council voting, Argentina's Rafael Grossi remains in contention, and the United Arab Emirates has made a late entry with the nomination of veteran diplomat Lana Nusseibeh.
The winner will succeed António Guterres, whose second five-year term ends on December 31, 2026. The next secretary-general, the tenth in the UN's history, is expected to take office on January 1, 2027.
The contest comes as the UN faces a severe funding crisis, pressure for institutional reform and divisions among major powers over wars in Ukraine, Gaza and Sudan.
The Financial Times reported on October 21 that supporters of Nusseibeh, the UAE's former ambassador to the UN, had been approaching diplomatic missions to assess support for her candidacy. Abu Dhabi subsequently announced her nomination.
Her entry complicates a race already shaped by two informal expectations: that the next secretary-general should come from Latin America and that the UN, after 81 years and nine male chiefs, should finally appoint a woman.
Neither convention is legally binding.
Rebeca Grynspan, a former vice-president of Costa Rica and the current head of UN Trade and Development, has secured nine encouragement votes in the latest informal Security Council straw poll reported by the Financial Times.
Nine votes are required for the council to recommend a candidate. But Grynspan also received two discouragement votes from permanent members, exposing her candidacy to potential vetoes.
Her experience spans economic development, international trade and multilateral institutions. She previously served as secretary-general of the Ibero-American General Secretariat and held senior positions in the UN Development Programme.
Rafael Grossi, Argentina's candidate, has headed the International Atomic Energy Agency since 2019. He has played a prominent diplomatic role in disputes over Iran's nuclear programme and the safety of nuclear facilities during Russia's war in Ukraine.
Grossi has also faced opposition from two permanent Security Council members, according to the reported straw-poll results.
His candidacy offers a different professional background from Grynspan's, emphasizing nuclear diplomacy, security and negotiations involving major powers.
Lana Nusseibeh, the UAE's late entrant, served as her country's permanent representative to the UN from 2013 to 2024. She is now a minister of state at the UAE Foreign Ministry.
Her years in New York included involvement in Security Council negotiations and multilateral diplomacy.
If appointed, she would become the first woman secretary-general and the second chief from the Arab world, after Egypt's Boutros Boutros-Ghali.
But her candidacy comes amid international scrutiny of the UAE's alleged involvement in Sudan's civil war. Abu Dhabi has repeatedly denied allegations that it has supplied weapons to the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces.
The UAE's nomination also tests the informal expectation that Latin America should supply the next secretary-general.
Other names in the contest include Carolyn Rodrigues Birkett, Guyana's permanent representative to the UN and a former foreign minister, and María Fernanda Espinosa Garcés, Ecuador's former foreign minister and a former president of the UN General Assembly.
Ivonne A-Baki, another former Ecuadorian diplomat, and Olara Otunnu, Uganda's former foreign minister and a former UN under-secretary-general, have also featured among the candidates.
Turkey's former foreign minister Feridun Sinirlioğlu has been mentioned in diplomatic discussions.
The field has already narrowed. Former Chilean President Michelle Bachelet's nomination was withdrawn in September, while former Senegalese President Macky Sall's nomination was withdrawn on October 20.
The secretary-general is formally appointed by the 193-member UN General Assembly, but the Security Council effectively determines who can be selected.
A candidate must receive at least nine votes from the council's 15 members without being vetoed by any of its five permanent members: the United States, China, Russia, Britain and France.
The council conducts informal straw polls to assess support and opposition before making its formal recommendation.
That process has exposed the central problem facing the current candidates.
Grynspan has secured the nine encouragement votes needed for a recommendation but has also encountered opposition from permanent members. Grossi faces similar resistance.
A candidate who wins broad support but cannot overcome a permanent member's veto cannot secure the post.
The contest is further complicated by the UN's informal regional rotation.
Latin America is widely regarded as due to provide the next secretary-general. The region has produced only one previous chief, Peru's Javier Pérez de Cuéllar, who served from 1982 to 1991.
There is also growing pressure to appoint the first woman to the position.
Grynspan, Rodrigues Birkett, Espinosa and A-Baki meet both expectations. Nusseibeh meets the gender expectation but not the regional one.
The United States has indicated that qualifications and the ability to reform the organisation should take precedence over gender and geography.
Since its establishment in 1945, the UN has had nine secretaries-general.
Norway's Trygve Lie was the first, serving from 1946 to 1952. He resigned amid Cold War tensions.
Sweden's Dag Hammarskjöld succeeded him in 1953 and remained in office until his death in a plane crash in 1961.
U Thant, from Burma, now Myanmar, served from 1961 to 1971, becoming the first Asian secretary-general.
Austria's Kurt Waldheim held the position from 1972 to 1981, followed by Peru's Javier Pérez de Cuéllar from 1982 to 1991.
Egypt's Boutros Boutros-Ghali served from 1992 to 1996. He remains the only Arab to have led the organisation and the only secretary-general denied a second term through a Security Council veto.
Ghana's Kofi Annan served from 1997 to 2006, followed by South Korea's Ban Ki-moon from 2007 to 2016.
Portugal's António Guterres, a former prime minister and UN refugee chief, took office on January 1, 2017.
His tenure has spanned the COVID-19 pandemic, Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the Gaza war and mounting financial pressure on the UN's humanitarian and peacekeeping operations.
The next secretary-general will inherit an institution facing demands that increasingly exceed its financial and political capacity.
The UN has struggled with funding shortfalls, delayed contributions from member states and pressure to reduce spending.
Its humanitarian agencies face growing needs in conflict zones, while Security Council divisions have repeatedly constrained international responses to major crises.
The incoming chief will also confront calls to reform an organisation whose structure still reflects the balance of power established after World War II.
Those challenges have made the selection more than a contest of diplomatic résumés.
Grynspan brings economic and development experience. Grossi has a record in nuclear diplomacy. Nusseibeh offers years of Security Council and multilateral negotiating experience. Other candidates bring backgrounds in foreign policy, development and international institutions.
But the decisive calculation rests with the five permanent Security Council members.
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