Bangladesh should allow Rohingya refugees to work legally and operate businesses as part of a broader overhaul of its refugee policy, the International Crisis Group (ICG) has said, arguing that the move would reduce dependence on dwindling aid while preparing refugees for eventual repatriation.
Repatriation should remain Bangladesh's long-term objective, but Dhaka needs a more realistic interim strategy as humanitarian funding declines and conditions deteriorate for more than one million Rohingya living in Cox's Bazar, the Brussels-based think tank said.
"The Bangladeshi government, for its part, should allow refugees to access formal employment or run their own businesses, which would both offset reductions in humanitarian assistance and better prepare them for repatriation," Thomas Kean, the ICG's Bangladesh and Myanmar consultant, said in a new report.
The group urged the government to build on the BNP's 2023 Rohingya strategy by strengthening security and governance in the camps, promoting refugee self-reliance and expanding diplomatic engagement with the two forces that now shape events in Myanmar's Rakhine State—the Arakan Army and the military-backed administration.
The ICG said pressure on the camps is intensifying. More than 150,000 Rohingya have crossed into Bangladesh over the past two years, while about 30,000 children are born in the camps annually.
"Despite having almost no multi-storey dwellings, the Rohingya settlements are now more densely populated than Dhaka," the report said.
It described camp expansion as essential, saying new or enlarged sites could ease overcrowding and attract funding for improved housing, including multi-storey buildings.
Although Rohingya are officially permitted to work only as paid volunteers for humanitarian organisations, many already earn livelihoods or run businesses informally inside and outside the camps, often for lower wages because they lack legal status.
The ICG recommended allowing regulated employment in sectors facing labour shortages, arguing that formal jobs would reduce reliance on aid while minimising competition with low-income Bangladeshi workers. It also called for officially recognised markets inside the camps.
The report further urged the government to create space for credible Rohingya civilian leaders while preventing armed groups from dominating camp institutions.
Citing the BNP's own policy framework, it said Bangladesh should work to "introduce fresh, educated and future-oriented civilian leadership" within the refugee community.
The think tank also called for a significant shift in Dhaka's approach toward the Arakan Army, which it said now controls about 90% of Rakhine State, including the entire Bangladesh-Myanmar border.
"The shifting balance of power in Rakhine State requires new channels of communication," the report said.
It recommended appointing a senior official or special envoy to pursue "quiet but meaningful engagement" with the Arakan Army, while making clear that such contacts should not constitute formal recognition.
The ICG said there were already signs the BNP-led government was moving in that direction, pointing to the recent limited resumption of semi-formal trade between southern Bangladesh and northern Rakhine.
At the same time, it cautioned against unconditional engagement, urging Dhaka to press the Arakan Army to guarantee the safety, freedom of movement and livelihoods of Rohingya living in areas under its control.
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