In Bangladesh’s haor country, a week can determine whether a farmer brings home a crop or watches it disappear under water.
This ‘calculation’ became painfully clear again in late April. Heavy rain and water rushing downstream from across the border began flooding the low-lying wetlands on April 26, when much of the Boro rice was still standing.
The flooding persisted for about 10 days. Government estimates put the damaged crop at roughly 50,000 hectares, about 10% of the cultivated area. A private assessment put the affected area much higher, at 122,016 hectares.
For farmers who depend on a single major crop each year, there was little room for recovery.
Now agricultural scientists are betting on a new rice variety designed around that narrow window between winter cold and spring floods.
BRRI dhan 118, approved in February, can be harvested seven to 10 days earlier than other short-duration Boro varieties commonly grown in the haors. More important, researchers say, it can withstand the low temperatures that have long made earlier planting difficult.
If planted early enough, the rice could be ready for harvest from the beginning of April, potentially before the period when flash floods pose their greatest threat.
The government is preparing to test that promise on a much larger scale this Boro season.
The Department of Agricultural Extension, or DAE, plans farmer-level demonstrations in 50 upazilas across the seven haor districts. The Bangladesh Rice Research Institute, or BRRI, has prepared about 30 tonnes of seed at four of its regional offices.
“The DAE will conduct demonstrations in 50 upazilas,” Dr Partha Sarathi Biswas, the BRRI chief scientific officer who led the team that developed the variety, told Daily Waadaa. “BRRI will also conduct demonstrations and provide seeds to farmers free of cost.”
Growing rice earlier might seem like an obvious answer to early floods. In the haors, it has not been that simple.
Farmers generally begin preparing Boro seedbeds around November 15 and complete sowing over the following 10 to 12 days. The timing is partly dictated by temperature.
When conventional Boro varieties are planted too early, their reproductive stage can coincide with the coldest part of winter. If the average temperature stays below 20 degrees Celsius for four or five consecutive days, the plants can suffer severe sterility, leaving grains undeveloped.
“If these varieties are planted earlier, 62 to 100 percent of the grains may become sterile,” Biswas said.
Planting after mid-November generally pushes the reproductive stage beyond mid-February, when temperatures begin to rise.
That biological constraint has complicated efforts to develop rice that can mature before the floods. BRRI dhan 118 was bred to tolerate the cold.
Researchers say it can be planted from early November, and trials suggest planting could begin even earlier. When the variety was planted in the final week of October, Biswas said, it still produced an average yield of around six tonnes per hectare.
“If other varieties are planted at that time, almost all the grains would become sterile,” he said. That earlier start shifts the entire crop calendar.
The variety generally takes 145 to 148 days to mature, though temperature and planting dates can stretch the period to between 150 and 157 days. With early planting, harvesting could begin in early April.
That matters because upstream flash floods typically threaten the haors after April 15, Biswas told Waadaa.
There are no guarantees. In 2017, devastating floods arrived around March 28, demonstrating that even an early variety cannot eliminate the risk.
But the aim is not to make the haors flood-proof. It is to give farmers more time.
“We started working on this variety keeping the threat of early flash floods in the haor region in mind,” Biswas said. “If farmers can harvest even a week earlier, a significant portion of the crop can be saved.”
An earlier harvest would be of little value if it came at the cost of substantially lower production. So far, BRRI’s trials suggest otherwise.
The variety produced an average of 6.77 tonnes per hectare, with yields reaching as high as 8.5 tonnes under favourable conditions and proper management.
Across trials at 10 locations, it yielded 22.83% more than BRRI dhan 28, according to BRRI.
The plants produce medium-bold grain and have relatively strong stems, making them less susceptible to lodging — the bending or collapse of plants before harvest.
Farmers in the haors currently rely on several short-duration varieties, particularly BRRI dhan 88 and BRRI dhan 74. BRRI dhan 28 and the longer-duration BRRI dhan 29 are also widely grown.
Those crops generally start maturing around mid-April, with large-scale harvesting taking place from late April into early May.
That can put farmers in a race against rising water.
This year, even some farmers who managed to cut their rice struggled after the floods arrived. There was insufficient dry ground on which to spread harvested paddy, Biswas said, causing some of it to rot.
The stakes extend beyond individual farms.
Bangladesh produces most of its rice during the Boro season, and the haor region accounts for roughly a tenth of the national crop.
According to the DAE, 963,000 hectares were under Boro cultivation across the seven haor districts this year. About 455,000 hectares were within the haor areas themselves, with another 508,000 hectares in surrounding non-haor land.
For many haor households, Boro is the only major crop of the year.
Talking with Waadaa, Prof Jahangir Alam Khan, a former president of the Bangladesh Agricultural Economists Association, said an earlier-maturing variety had long been needed in a region where farmers face the same uncertainty each spring.
“We needed an early-maturing rice variety to protect Boro crops from flash floods and upstream water,” he said. “In that regard, BRRI dhan 118 appears to be very suitable.”
The coming season will provide an important test outside research plots.
Md Obaidur Rahman Mondal, director of the DAE’s Field Services Wing told Waadaa that the government would use demonstrations across the seven districts to introduce farmers to the variety. Seeds and other agricultural inputs will be provided as part of the programme.
For researchers, the idea behind the new rice is to move planting forward, move harvesting forward and widen the distance between a mature crop and the first surge of floodwater.
In the haors, even seven days can be a harvest.
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