India's ambition to connect with Southeast Asia cannot succeed without Bangladesh, and New Delhi must address longstanding disputes over water, trade and sovereignty to revive regional connectivity, former Bangladesh High Commissioner to India Tariq Karim has argued.
In an analysis published Tuesday by the Institute of South Asian Studies (ISAS) at the National University of Singapore, Karim said Bangladesh's geography makes it indispensable to India's flagship "Act East" policy.
The former envoy is currently a Distinguished Visiting Research Fellow at ISAS. His paper, titled India's 'Act East' Needs Bangladesh to 'Look East', was published on October 20.
Bangladesh, he argued, must pursue its own "Look East" strategy to connect South Asia with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN).
The former diplomat said India's northeastern states depend on Bangladeshi roads, railways, waterways and ports for their shortest commercial access to the sea.
Chattogram, Mongla, Payra and Matarbari could become gateways for a wider regional economy, linking Bangladeshi manufacturing, Indian markets, Nepalese and Bhutanese hydropower and ASEAN supply chains.
But political tensions have stalled that potential.
Karim said the upheaval following Sheikh Hasina's ouster in August 2024, the interim administration under Muhammad Yunus and the BNP's victory in February 2026 had dismantled the political framework supporting earlier bilateral cooperation.
New Delhi, he observed, now faces criticism for investing too heavily in Hasina and her Awami League.
India's continued hosting of Hasina, Bangladesh's demand for her extradition, border killings, trade restrictions and unresolved river-water disputes have further strained relations.
Karim argued that Bangladeshi grievances should not simply be dismissed as anti-India sentiment.
Instead, they reflect demands for sovereign equality and a bilateral relationship that can survive changes of government.
Karim identified water-sharing as an immediate test of India's willingness to reset relations.
The BJP's victory in West Bengal and its alliance's continued control of Assam have given New Delhi greater political alignment across states bordering Bangladesh.
The BJP now controls four of the five Indian states sharing a border with Bangladesh, he noted.
That alignment could remove a major political obstacle to resolving the Teesta dispute.
West Bengal had blocked a draft Teesta water-sharing agreement in 2011. With the BJP now governing both New Delhi and Kolkata, Karim argued, that political excuse no longer holds.
The 1996 Ganges water-sharing treaty, meanwhile, expires in December 2026.
He cautioned that political alignment alone would not resolve dry-season water shortages, irrigation demands or climate-related pressures without credible data and basin-wide negotiations.
Karim also warned that Indian political rhetoric portraying Bangladeshis primarily as illegal migrants or security threats could undermine New Delhi's own strategic ambitions.
Such campaigns, he argued, risk deepening mistrust and strengthening perceptions that connectivity projects serve Indian dominance rather than mutual prosperity.
A deterioration in relations would increase costs for India's Northeast, delay transport and energy projects, and weaken Bangladesh's prospects of becoming a regional commercial hub.
He cited India's April 2025 withdrawal of a transshipment facility for Bangladeshi exports to third countries through Indian ports and airports as an example of the vulnerability of bilateral economic arrangements.
Bangladesh's expanding relations with China, Pakistan and Türkiye, meanwhile, should be understood as normal strategic diversification rather than an automatic rejection of India, he argued.
Karim said bilateral cooperation could no longer depend on personal ties with a particular government.
India should engage Bangladesh's government, opposition, civil society, businesses and younger generation, while Dhaka should avoid allowing legitimate grievances to become permanent strategic disengagement.
The former envoy called for an equitable Teesta agreement, broader cooperation on shared rivers, removal of non-tariff trade barriers and reciprocal market access for Bangladeshi exporters.
He also recommended transparent assessments of transit, port and infrastructure projects to establish how both countries, particularly border communities, benefit.
Border security, he argued, must be balanced with humane treatment.
Karim identified BIMSTEC as a potential framework for reviving regional integration.
The grouping adopted a transport connectivity master plan in 2022 and signed a maritime transport agreement at its Bangkok summit in April 2025.
But implementation remains the challenge.
He urged progress on customs coordination, coastal shipping, cross-border railway standards, energy trade and disaster resilience.
The Bangladesh-Bhutan-India-Nepal Motor Vehicles Agreement, signed in 2015, also remains short of full implementation despite an implementing protocol agreed in 2025.
Karim warned that the Bay of Bengal region now faces a choice between economic integration and increasingly restrictive borders driven by competing nationalisms.
India's stronger political control over its border states has given New Delhi greater capacity to address longstanding disputes, he argued.
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