India’s External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar has warned that the world could face a “major food crisis” in the coming months as conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, tight energy markets and a strong El Niño put further pressure on food and fertiliser supplies, The Independent reports.

Speaking at an Asia Society event in New York, Jaishankar said the two wars had placed simultaneous pressure on energy, food, fertilisers and financial markets, with the effects particularly severe for countries in the Global South.

“If you have energy as a big crunch and then food and fertilisers on top of it, and finance, because every time there's a conflict, money moves towards safe harbours and away from the Global South, the net result of it has been really very, very stressful,” he said.

Jaishankar also criticised what he described as political manoeuvring over oil supplies, saying it was contributing to higher energy prices at a time when markets should be stabilising.

“Part of it is actually the security of oil supplies and part of it is the politics of oil supplies, and they are feeding into each other and creating an aggravated crisis,” he said.

Oil prices have risen sharply this month, with Brent crude on course for a monthly gain of around 14%, its biggest increase since July.

Jaishankar said disruptions to grain exports from the Black Sea could further worsen food insecurity. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has repeatedly affected shipments from the region, which is home to some of the world’s major wheat and grain producers.

He also warned of growing fertiliser shortages, noting that major producers are concentrated in the Middle East and Russia, where conflicts and disruptions have affected production.

“On top of it, we are looking at a super El Nino, so there is going to be a major food crisis probably in the coming months,” Jaishankar said.

El Niño is a natural climate pattern that warms parts of the Pacific Ocean and can disrupt rainfall, agriculture and food production across different regions of the world.

The current El Niño is expected to be unusually strong and comes amid rising global temperatures. The Climate Impact Lab, a research group at the University of Chicago, estimated that the event could contribute to almost 500,000 additional heat-related deaths worldwide by February, with the Global South expected to bear much of the impact.

Jaishankar urged policymakers to consider how their decisions affect other countries, particularly those already facing economic pressure.

“I don't think it's a question of whether it was intended or not intended,” he said. “Policymakers can't say that was not intended.”

He added that countries should not become so focused on their own interests that they ignore the wider consequences of their decisions on the rest of the world.