Southeast Asia's top diplomats will express alarm over renewed hostilities in the Middle East when they gather in the Philippine capital on Tuesday for talks with counterparts from the United States, China, Russia, the European Union and other Western and Asian nations.
The annual meetings of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) are expected to focus on some of the world's most intractable conflicts, including the latest fighting involving Iran. The Philippines, which holds the chairmanship of the 11-member regional bloc this year, is hosting the three-day meetings in Manila.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov are among those attending. Ukraine's Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha has been invited to a ceremony on Friday marking the 50th anniversary of ASEAN's 1976 Treaty of Amity and Cooperation but will not take part in the meetings attended by Rubio and Lavrov.
Neither Rubio nor Lavrov has announced plans to meet each other or Sybiha while in Manila.
ASEAN foreign ministers will first meet among themselves on Tuesday to discuss, among other issues, the hostilities between the United States and Iran, which have spilled over into other parts of the Middle East and raised fears of a wider regional war.
The ministers are expected to issue a joint statement expressing concern over the conflict and urging both sides to resume dialogue, two Southeast Asian diplomats told the Associated Press.
The fighting has again threatened shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, the strategic waterway through which about 20% of the world's oil supplies passed before the conflict.
Southeast Asia, home to more than 680 million people, depends heavily on Middle Eastern oil and gas and has been severely affected by the global supply disruptions and price shocks triggered by the conflict. Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr declared a national energy emergency in March to safeguard fuel supplies, food and other essential goods while preventing hoarding and profiteering.
Washington's preoccupation with the conflict and the diversion of military resources to the Middle East have also raised concerns about whether the US can maintain its focus on the Asia-Pacific, particularly in countering China's increasingly assertive actions in the disputed South China Sea and around Taiwan.
Rubio's participation in the ASEAN meetings is aimed at reaffirming Washington's commitment to the region.
"The secretary's visit advances a clear US priority: a free and open Indo-Pacific that delivers safety, security and prosperity for the region and for the American people," State Department spokesperson Thomas Pigott said.
Before leaving for Manila, Rubio said no meeting with Wang had been finalised but added that he would "be open" to one. He declined to say whether he would raise President Donald Trump's allegations of Chinese interference in the 2020 US election, but said he still expected Chinese President Xi Jinping to visit the United States in September.
"When you have two big, powerful countries like the United States and China, there are always going to be irritants; there are always going to be things we don't agree on," Rubio said late on Sunday in Washington. "But I think it's incumbent on powerful, important countries like ours to continue to talk and have a relationship. We owe it to each other, to our people and to the world."
On the sidelines of the ASEAN meetings, Rubio is also expected to meet his counterparts from the Quad grouping — comprising the US, India, Japan and Australia. The bloc is regarded as a key pillar of Washington's strategy to counter China's growing influence, a characterisation Beijing has repeatedly criticised.
Alongside global conflicts, ASEAN foreign ministers remain under pressure to do more to address regional crises, particularly Myanmar's civil war and tensions in the South China Sea.
Since Myanmar's military seized power from the democratically elected government of Aung San Suu Kyi in 2021, more than 8,100 people have been killed and nearly 22,500 remain in detention, according to the Assistance Association for Political Prisoners, a rights monitoring group.
ASEAN's five-point peace consensus, adopted in 2021, has failed to halt the violence, largely because of the military government's failure to implement it. As a result, the bloc has barred Myanmar's leaders from attending its top-level meetings, including this week's gathering in Manila.
In an effort to revive the stalled peace process, ASEAN foreign ministers led by Philippine Foreign Secretary Theresa Lazaro met Myanmar's foreign minister earlier this month in Bangkok — the first such meeting in five years. They renewed calls for an end to the violence and pledged to intensify efforts to promote dialogue among all parties to the conflict.
The following day, Lazaro, in her capacity as ASEAN's special envoy, and Thailand's Foreign Minister Sihasak Phuangketkeow met senior representatives of Myanmar's ethnic armed groups in the Thai resort city of Pattaya for consultations.
Rights organisations criticised the meeting with Myanmar's Foreign Minister Tin Maung Swe, arguing that it undermined ASEAN's ban on engaging with senior officials from the military-backed government and rewarded the junta without securing any concessions.
"It was not and should not be mischaracterised as an abandonment of the five-point consensus," Lazaro said. "The path to peace can only be obtained through resolute diplomacy with all parties to the conflict."
ASEAN foreign ministers are also due to meet Wang to discuss progress on negotiations over a proposed Code of Conduct for the South China Sea, aimed at preventing the long-running territorial disputes from escalating.
The competing claims involve China, Taiwan and ASEAN members Brunei, Malaysia, the Philippines and Vietnam. However, confrontations have intensified in recent years, particularly between Chinese and Philippine coastguard and naval vessels in the disputed waters.