A man votes during the second phase of the Azad Jammu and Kashmir (AJK) Legislative Assembly elections at a polling station in Karachi, Pakistan, August 2, 2026. Reuters
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PML-N poised to win majority in Pakistan-administered Kashmir

Reuters

Pakistan’s ruling PML-N is on track to secure a majority in the Pakistan-administered Kashmir assembly after winning 25 of 53 seats and eyeing more in upcoming rounds and reserved seats. But the vote has been marred by deadly unrest, postponed polling, allegations of rigging and deep anger over refugee-reserved seats, leaving the region’s next government facing a volatile political and security crisis.

Pakistan's ruling party appeared poised to secure a majority in the Pakistan-administered Kashmir assembly, although voting in some of the most closely watched constituencies was postponed following deadly unrest.

The Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) had secured 25 of the 53 seats as of Wednesday and was widely expected to win more seats in at least two further rounds of voting. The party is also expected to gain additional reserved seats.

The elections were originally scheduled to take place in three rounds between late July and August 10. However, growing security concerns forced authorities to postpone voting in seven constituencies from Monday to a date yet to be announced.

A separate rerun of voting at 23 polling stations in two constituencies has been scheduled for Saturday following irregularities reported during Monday's voting.

The election has been marred by deadly clashes, road closures and an internet blackout, raising concerns about the political and security challenges facing the region's next government.

Analysts said the unrest is likely to overshadow the formation of the next regional government.

The PML-N has benefited from a longstanding constitutional provision that reserves 12 assembly seats for constituencies representing people described as refugees from Indian-administered Kashmir. The party has won most of these seats.

The reserved seats have become a major point of contention in Pakistani politics in recent months. Kashmiri protesters have criticised the system, arguing that the seats are often filled by people living elsewhere in Pakistan who have little understanding of the region's economic difficulties.

The PML-N did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Following the first round of voting in late July, the Joint Awami Action Committee, a group of protesters, said more than 30 people had been killed around Rawalakot in clashes with security forces over two days. Pakistani authorities rejected the figure and described the protesters as militants backed by India.

Reuters could not independently verify the number of deaths.

Political analyst Hasan-Askari Rizvi said the incoming government would face a combination of electoral, political, economic and security challenges.

He said the PML-N's likely victory, particularly if it depends on the reserved refugee seats that protesters want abolished, could leave the incoming government poorly placed to mediate the crisis.

The region, he said, “will remain at boiling point”.

The political crisis extends beyond the protesters' demands.

The Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), founded by jailed former prime minister Imran Khan, won the previous regional election in 2021 but boycotted this year's vote, citing concerns over electoral fraud.

The boycott left the PML-N and Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP), which are political allies at the national level, as the two main contenders.

The PPP has so far won 12 seats, fewer than expected. Its leaders have accused the PML-N of vote rigging, allegations the ruling party has rejected.

Local election commission official Raja Shakeel told Reuters that there were no major irregularities in the voting process.

The most closely watched contests may still lie ahead, with voters in Rawalakot and Sudhnoti, two major centres of the protests, yet to cast their ballots.

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