It is a challenging time for Russia to hold a parliamentary election, even one whose outcome is all but assured.
The country’s economic and political climate has been deeply affected by more than four years of full-scale war with Ukraine. Waves of Ukrainian drones have caused extensive damage to Russian oil refineries and logistical facilities, while the public, which once viewed the fighting as a distant conflict, is increasingly feeling its effects.
United Russia, the main Kremlin-backed party, is expected to retain its overwhelming grip on the State Duma alongside several other parties aligned with President Vladimir Putin. At the same time, authorities have tightened their control over the first wartime election for the lower house of parliament since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
The Kremlin has suppressed even limited signs of dissent ahead of three days of voting that began Friday in Russia’s Far East. The only party on the ballot that openly criticised the war was removed from the election, while several anti-war politicians have been imprisoned or forced to leave the country.
For the first time, the election also includes residents of four Ukrainian regions that Moscow claims to have annexed following the invasion. Ukraine has declared the vote illegal.
With the outcome largely predetermined and Putin’s political dominance facing no immediate challenge, analysts say the Kremlin views the election as an opportunity to demonstrate public support for the war and lend legitimacy to its actions.
“Your choice and resolve will once again demonstrate that millions of people stand behind our fighters, that we are a united people, bound by shared values, historical memory, and love for the Motherland,” Putin said in an address ahead of the vote.
A summer of Ukrainian long-range drone strikes has brought the war closer to millions of Russians.
The attacks have compounded problems for an economy that has slipped into stagnation after an initial boost from heavy military spending. The government has raised taxes and increased domestic borrowing as it seeks to contain a growing budget deficit.
Strikes on Russian oil refineries triggered a severe fuel crisis that peaked in June, eased for several weeks and returned in August.
A series of attacks on warehouses operated by online retailers Wildberries and Ozon added to the economic strain. Hundreds of thousands of individual sellers lost merchandise, sending another shock through the economy.
The developments have also weighed on public sentiment. Polls have recorded a decline in Putin’s approval rating, although it remains high. The independent Levada Center put his approval at 76% in August, down from 87% in September 2025.
Even some senior members of Russia’s economic establishment have publicly voiced concern.
Andrei Klepach, chief economist at state-owned VEB.RF bank, warned of possible internal turmoil.
“We won’t win the competition in this war of attrition,” he said at a seminar. “Our costs are mounting. I’m almost sure that we will come to face a social crisis.”
Klepach was dismissed the day after his comments were published.
Putin has acknowledged that the Ukrainian attacks have caused significant damage but insisted Russia’s economy can withstand the pressure. He accused Ukraine of opening a “Pandora’s box” and threatened massive retaliation.
Russia has intensified missile attacks on Kyiv and other Ukrainian cities, while deploying new jet-powered drones as Ukraine faces shortages of air-defence interceptors. Moscow has also sharply increased attacks on Black Sea ports, disrupting Ukrainian grain and other agricultural exports, which are a key source of revenue for the country.
The escalation has fuelled fears that the Kremlin could order another large-scale mobilisation.
A partial mobilisation of 300,000 reservists in 2022 prompted hundreds of thousands of Russians to flee abroad, raising concerns about domestic stability. Since then, the Kremlin has relied on volunteers to replenish its forces, offering relatively high wages and other benefits. Military experts, however, have warned that the flow of volunteers has slowed while battlefield losses remain high.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has repeatedly claimed that the Kremlin is considering another wave of mobilisation after the election. Putin has dismissed the claims as “nonsense”.
At a September 5 Kremlin meeting with US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, followed by a call with President Donald Trump, Putin said Russia held the upper hand on the battlefield, signalling that he intended to maintain his maximalist demands in any peace negotiations.
In July, Russia’s Central Election Commission cleared 11 parties to contest the parliamentary election, including Yabloko, the only party on the ballot to openly oppose the war.
Weeks later, however, the Supreme Court removed Yabloko from the ballot after an appeal by the nationalist Motherland party, which argued that the liberal party’s anti-war position amounted to seeking a violation of Russia’s territorial integrity.
Kremlin watchers described the move as a possible sign of disagreement within the authorities over how much electoral competition should be allowed. Some officials may have wanted a degree of competition to encourage turnout, while others feared that Yabloko’s participation could bring open criticism of the war and trigger political instability.
“The risks that the campaign would turn into a struggle for and against peace — that is, a dispute about the war — were quite high, and this clearly was not part of the plan,” said Tatyana Stanovaya of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center.
Maxim Kruglov, a deputy chairman of Yabloko and former member of the Moscow city council, was convicted in June of spreading false information about the military and sentenced to seven years in prison.
Last month, a court in the Pskov region convicted Yabloko member Lev Shlosberg of speaking out against the war and sentenced him to more than 11 years in prison.
Half of the State Duma’s 450 seats are allocated through party-list voting, while the other half are contested in single-member constituencies. With Yabloko removed from the party-list ballot, authorities also moved to block individual Yabloko members from running in most single-member Duma and regional legislative races.
Liberal politician and war critic Boris Nadezhdin, who sought to challenge Putin in the 2024 presidential election, left Russia last month, saying he feared imprisonment after being designated a “foreign agent” and barred from seeking office.
United Russia, which controls more than two-thirds of the Duma’s seats, is expected to maintain its dominance despite public fatigue over the war and growing economic pressures.
Some Russian reports suggest the Kremlin has slightly lowered its target for United Russia but still expects the party to retain control of parliament.
“United Russia may be allowed to slip a little … to bring its actual sort of declared results more in line with probably its real results,” said analyst Mark Galeotti, who heads the Mayak Intelligence consultancy. He added that the Kremlin would ensure the party remained “still absolutely dominant within the Duma”.
One purpose of the election, Galeotti said, is to serve as “legitimating rituals to give the impression that mass consensus is behind the Kremlin”.
The other major parliamentary parties — the Communist Party, the Liberal-Democratic Party and A Just Russia Party — are part of Russia’s “systemic opposition” and broadly follow Putin’s political course, including support for the war. They are expected to retain their parliamentary presence.
Ukraine’s attacks have fuelled anxiety among Russians, but they could also increase demands for a tougher response against Kyiv, Galeotti said, provided people do not have to participate directly in the fighting.
Chris Weafer, CEO of Macro-Advisory Ltd., said the attacks had affected public morale but had not created an immediate challenge to the Kremlin’s political dominance.
“There has been a ‘rally around the flag’ anyway since the start of conflict and the opinion polls consistently show the very high level of support,” he said.
While the election result is largely predetermined, Weafer said turnout and the public narrative surrounding the vote are particularly important to the Kremlin as it seeks to portray broad public support for its actions.