Is there a real business case for Biman’s $8.4bn fleet expansion?

Biman Bangladesh Airlines has committed to acquiring 35 new aircraft from Boeing and Airbus in less than six months, embarking on the largest fleet expansion in its history. 

The combined agreements, valued at more than $8.4 billion, would substantially enlarge the national carrier and introduce European-built passenger jets into a fleet long dominated by Boeing.

The latest agreement, signed with Airbus on October 7, covers four A350-900 widebody aircraft and six A321neo narrowbody jets. The package is expected to cost more than $2 billion, with deliveries beginning in 2031, although Biman has requested an earlier aircraft by 2028.

It follows two Boeing agreements: an April 30 contract for 14 aircraft worth $3.7 billion and a September 23 agreement for another 11, valued at approximately $2.7 billion.

Together, the Boeing purchases comprise 13 787-10 Dreamliners, two 787-9s and ten 737-8 MAX aircraft. Deliveries are scheduled between November 2031 and 2035.

Biman currently operates 19 aircraft. The 35 new jets represent nearly twice that number, although the eventual fleet size will depend on retirements and delivery schedules. And also whether every aircraft covered by the agreements enters service.

The purchases are being presented as part of the government's ambition to establish Bangladesh as a regional aviation hub, expand international connectivity and recover passenger traffic currently carried by foreign airlines. 

There is also an economic argument for expansion. Bangladesh has a population of roughly 170 million, a substantial overseas workforce and a growing international travel market. Yet foreign carriers account for approximately 77% of international passenger traffic.

That imbalance suggests considerable room for domestic airlines to grow.

But it does not necessarily establish that Biman actually needs 35 new aircraft, a large chunk of which is wide-body jet. The more important questions concern where those aircraft will fly, whether the routes can generate sufficient revenue, and how much additional business Biman can win from established international competitors.

Three decades of profits and losses

Biman's financial history provides a useful starting point for assessing the expansion.

The airline was profitable from fiscal 1991-92 through 2003-04, according to historical accounts reviewed by Daily Waadaa. But profitability deteriorated in the following years as operational inefficiencies and rising fuel costs affected its business.

By 2005-06, Biman was reporting losses exceeding 800 crore taka. Its aging DC-10 fleet was increasingly expensive to operate, while limited aircraft availability constrained its network.

In 2007, the government converted Biman into a public limited company, although ownership remained with the state. Restructuring and workforce reductions accompanied the transition.

Profits returned during the caretaker-government period, but another prolonged downturn followed. Biman incurred losses between 2009-10 and 2013-14, including approximately 606 crore taka in 2011-12.

The introduction of newer Boeing aircraft helped improve operating efficiency. Biman returned to profitability between 2014-15 and 2016-17, before losing money again in 2017-18.

It earned a profit in 2018-19, then recorded a loss of approximately Tk 81 crore in 2019-20 as the pandemic disrupted aviation. Profitability subsequently recovered. 

The latest audited figures are substantially stronger.

For fiscal 2024-25, Biman reported revenue of 11,559 crore taka, operating profit of 1,602 crore taka and net profit of 785.21 crore taka. Net profit increased 178% from the previous year, while revenue rose 9.46%.

The airline transported 33.83 lakh passengers during the year, approximately 1% more than the previous period. 

These figures show that Biman can generate profits. They do not, however, establish that a much larger fleet would produce proportionately higher returns.

A further complication is its financial obligations. Reporting by The Business Standard newspaper in September identified more than 7,075 crore taka owed to state entities, including approximately 5,842 crore taka to the Civil Aviation Authority of Bangladesh and 1,232 crore taka to Padma Oil.

Biman also faced a shortage of 61 pilots, equivalent to 28% of its requirements. Its Boeing 787-8 aircraft averaged 11.18 flying hours daily in September 2025, while its 787-9s averaged 13.48 hours.

Aircraft utilisation matters because ownership, financing and depreciation costs continue even when aircraft remain on the ground. 

Introducing Airbus aircraft adds another consideration. Biman will need additional type-rated pilots, engineering expertise, spare parts and maintenance arrangements.

A mixed fleet can provide greater flexibility and reduce dependence on one manufacturer. It can also increase operating complexity, particularly for an airline whose existing fleet and technical resources are relatively small.

The routes Biman flies and those it abandoned

Biman's international network is concentrated in the Middle East, South Asia, Southeast Asia and a limited number of long-haul destinations.

Its published network includes Abu Dhabi, Dammam, Doha, Dubai, Jeddah, Madinah, Muscat, Riyadh and Kuwait; Delhi, Kolkata, Chennai and Kathmandu; Bangkok, Kuala Lumpur, Singapore, Guangzhou and Hong Kong; and London, Manchester, Rome, Toronto and Tokyo Narita. Karachi also appears in its published destination listings.

Domestically, the airline serves major cities including Chattogram, Sylhet, Cox's Bazar, Rajshahi, Saidpur, Jashore and Barishal. Individual frequencies and operational availability vary. 

The Middle East remains central to Biman's business.

Saudi Arabia is Bangladesh's largest overseas labour destination. According to the Bureau of Manpower, Employment and Training, approximately 7.53 lakh Bangladeshis travelled there for employment in 2025, accounting for about two-thirds of the country's overseas worker deployments.

Qatar, Kuwait and other Gulf countries also generate substantial passenger demand. Workers travelling home, returning to employment or undertaking religious journeys provide a recurring market for airlines. 

Biman therefore has a natural customer base in Saudi Arabia and the wider Gulf. Additional flights to Jeddah, Riyadh, Dammam and Madinah could provide opportunities, particularly during peak migration and Hajj seasons.

But this market is competitive and price-sensitive. Passengers can choose Saudi carriers, Emirates, Qatar Airways, flydubai, Air Arabia and other operators, depending on their destinations and connections.

The airline's experience outside the Middle East has been less consistent.

Biman began flying to New York in December 1993, initially operating through intermediate stops. Its final scheduled New York service departed Dhaka on July 29, 2006.

The route had become financially unsustainable. Contemporary reporting indicated that Biman was losing approximately 52 lakh taka on each New York flight. US aviation safety restrictions also complicated operations. The airline has not restored scheduled US services since. 

Toronto represents another attempt to serve the North American Bangladeshi diaspora. Biman introduced the service in 2022, using Boeing 787 aircraft and intermediate technical stops.

For the northern summer 2026 schedule, it changed the routing to Dhaka-Rome-Toronto, replacing Istanbul as the intermediate stop. The published schedule provided three weekly flights using Boeing 787-9 aircraft.

The operation illustrates the challenges of long-haul flying: aircraft range, payload, fuel requirements and scheduling can determine whether a service is commercially attractive. 

Rome has a longer history. Biman first entered the Italian market in 1981, suspended services in 2015 and resumed direct Dhaka-Rome flights in March 2024 after a nine-year interruption.

The resumption was aimed primarily at Bangladeshis living in Italy. The route's earlier suspension, however, demonstrated that a large diaspora does not automatically guarantee sufficient revenue. 

Tokyo offers a similar lesson.

Biman suspended its Japan operation in 2006, restored Dhaka-Narita flights in September 2023, and suspended them again from July 2025, citing aircraft shortages, Hajj commitments and commercial considerations.

The airline announced another resumption from July 27, 2026, initially with one weekly service.

Repeated openings and closures make it difficult to establish consistent customer demand, corporate travel contracts and distribution relationships. 

Potential expansion markets include Australia, particularly Sydney and Melbourne, where Bangladesh has an established diaspora; additional European destinations; and selected Asian business centres.

The commercial case would differ considerably between them. Sydney requires long-haul capacity and reliable year-round demand. Regional Asian routes can use smaller aircraft, but face competition from carriers with larger networks and more frequent services.

A route should therefore be judged not simply by the number of Bangladeshis living at its destination, but by passenger volumes, fares, seasonal demand, cargo opportunities and the aircraft required to serve it.

Why foreign airlines dominate Bangladesh's market

Foreign airlines carry approximately 77% of Bangladesh's international passengers, according to New Age. Biman's own share is considerably smaller, despite its position as the national carrier.

The explanation lies partly in network economics.

Emirates, Qatar Airways, Turkish Airlines and Singapore Airlines operate extensive networks connecting passengers through their respective hubs. A Bangladeshi traveller heading to New York, Frankfurt or Sydney can purchase a journey involving one connection through Dubai, Doha, Istanbul or Singapore.

These carriers benefit from combining passengers from multiple countries on the same long-haul flights. Biman, with its smaller network, relies more heavily on passengers travelling directly to or from Bangladesh.

Airlines make money by selling seats at prices exceeding the cost of carrying passengers, while generating additional revenue from cargo, baggage, premium cabins and ancillary services.

Three measures are particularly important: load factor, the proportion of seats occupied; yield, the revenue earned per passenger-kilometre; and unit cost, the expense of operating each available seat-kilometre.

A flight can be almost full and still lose money if average fares are too low. Conversely, strong premium-cabin sales and cargo revenue can make a moderately occupied long-haul service profitable.

Aircraft selection is equally important.

A Boeing 787-10 offers substantial passenger capacity but less range than the 787-9. Airbus A350-900 aircraft can serve longer sectors, while the A321neo and 737 MAX are better suited to shorter and medium-haul markets.

Operating the correct aircraft at the appropriate frequency is often more important than maximising capacity.

Biman could recover market share by increasing frequencies to proven destinations, improving punctuality, strengthening online distribution and building connecting traffic through Dhaka.

However, its competitors possess advantages in scale, loyalty programmes, global partnerships and established distribution networks. Winning passengers back would require sustained service improvements, not merely additional aircraft.

Can Dhaka become a hub and what role does geopolitics play?

Bangladesh's geographical position offers opportunities for connections between South Asia, Southeast Asia and parts of East Asia.

The third terminal at Hazrat Shahjalal International Airport is intended to expand passenger-handling capacity substantially. Former aviation regulator M Mafidur Rahman has argued that airport development must be accompanied by better ground handling, regulatory capacity, airline management and additional runway infrastructure. 

Yet geography alone cannot establish an aviation hub.

Successful hubs depend on coordinated flight schedules, efficient transfers, reliable baggage handling, competitive airport charges and enough passengers travelling between destinations beyond the host country.

Dhaka also faces a formidable regional competitor.

India is expanding Delhi's Indira Gandhi International Airport, with plans for approximately 7,000 crore rupees in infrastructure investment and a 7.3km automated inter-terminal passenger system targeted around 2030.

Meanwhile, Noida International Airport at Jewar began commercial operations in June 2026, creating another major aviation gateway serving the National Capital Region. 

Delhi and Noida benefit from India's enormous domestic market, which can feed international flights with passengers from across the country. Air India and IndiGo are also expanding their international ambitions.

Dhaka cannot replicate that domestic feeder market. It must instead identify connections where its location, operating costs and available traffic offer a competitive advantage.

There is also a geopolitical dimension to Biman's purchases.

The Boeing agreements were signed amid Bangladesh-US trade negotiations. President Donald Trump welcomed the purchases, while senior American officials attended the September signing in New York.

The Airbus agreement followed diplomatic engagement involving France and the European Union. Discussions began during Sheikh Hasina's administration, including French President Emmanuel Macron's September 2023 visit to Dhaka. 

Bangladeshi officials maintain that the purchases reflect commercial requirements rather than foreign pressure.

Nevertheless, large aircraft contracts can serve diplomatic and trade objectives alongside aviation policy. The central issue is whether those objectives align with Biman's financial capacity.

The airline has reported stronger recent profits, and Bangladesh's international passenger market provides room for growth. But the financing arrangements for the expansion have not been fully disclosed, while the carrier faces staffing shortages, substantial outstanding liabilities and the additional costs of operating aircraft from two manufacturers.

With most deliveries scheduled for the next decade, Biman has time to develop its route network, recruit pilots, expand maintenance capacity and improve commercial operations.

Its ability to justify the purchases will ultimately depend on measurable results: aircraft utilisation, route profitability, passenger yields, market share and returns on invested capital.

Those figures, rather than the number of aircraft ordered, will determine whether the expansion strengthens Biman's finances or adds to its long history of uneven performance.

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