Flood threat intensifies across 15 districts as rivers swell

A fresh wave of flooding is threatening at least 15 districts as relentless monsoon rain across Bangladesh and upstream India pushes rivers towards danger levels, raising the risk of flash floods over the next three days.

The Flood Forecasting and Warning Centre (FFWC) warned on Wednesday that the situation is likely to deteriorate in parts of the south-east, north-east and northern Teesta basin, with Bandarban and Cox's Bazar already experiencing flooding.

"Altogether, 15 districts face a risk of short-term flooding over the next three days," Sarder Udoy Raihan, executive engineer at the FFWC under the Bangladesh Water Development Board, told Daily Waadaa.

The districts at risk are Bandarban, Cox's Bazar, Feni, Chattogram and Khagrachhari in the south-east; Sylhet, Sunamganj, Moulvibazar, Habiganj, Netrokona, Sherpur and Mymensingh in the north-east and north-central regions; and Nilphamari, Lalmonirhat and Rangpur in the Teesta basin.

Floodwaters have already spread across parts of Bandarban and Cox's Bazar as rivers continue to rise.

"The flood situation in the south-eastern region has already developed and could worsen over the next three days," Raihan said.

The FFWC said rivers in Feni, Chattogram and Khagrachhari could cross danger levels within 24 to 72 hours, inundating low-lying areas. Similar conditions are expected in Sylhet, Sunamganj, Moulvibazar, Habiganj, Netrokona, Sherpur and Mymensingh.

In the north, the Teesta is expected to cross the danger mark within 24 to 48 hours, threatening low-lying areas of Nilphamari, Lalmonirhat and Rangpur.

Low-lying riverside areas in Lakshmipur and Noakhali also face temporary flooding, while the Dharla and Dudhkumar rivers may reach warning levels in Lalmonirhat and Kurigram within the next 72 hours.

The warning follows days of exceptionally heavy rainfall across Bangladesh and neighbouring Indian states.

Heavy to very heavy rain is forecast to continue over Chattogram, Sylhet, Mymensingh and Rangpur divisions, as well as Tripura, Assam, Meghalaya and West Bengal, for at least the next three days, with another two days of significant rainfall expected thereafter.

In the 24 hours ending at 9am Wednesday, Chattogram and Mymensingh each recorded 258mm of rain. Lama in Bandarban received 218mm, while several other areas logged more than 150mm. Across the border, Mawsynram recorded 138mm and Cherrapunji 126mm.

The sustained rainfall has accelerated river rises nationwide. Of the country's 127 river monitoring stations, water levels were rising at 69 as of Wednesday morning. Two rivers had already crossed the danger level: the Sangu at Bandarban stood 96cm above the danger mark, while the Matamuhuri at Lama was 14cm above it.

Despite the worsening outlook, Raihan said current projections do not indicate flooding on the scale of the devastating 2022 or 2024 disasters.

"There is no such risk so far," he said. "We expect short-term flooding, although flash floods could develop in some areas and the situation may worsen over the next three days."

He noted that the 2024 floods inundated around 40% of Bangladesh, while the 2022 floods affected about 26-27% of the country, mainly across the north-east and parts of the Brahmaputra basin. The current forecast, he said, falls well below those scenarios.

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