10 years' data to be analysed to predict supply risks in advance: Commerce Minister

The government is planning to introduce an artificial intelligence (AI)-based data analytics system to help ensure a stable supply of essential and sensitive commodities by identifying potential shortages in advance, Commerce Minister Khandakar Abdul Muktadir said on Tuesday.

An integrated management system is needed to analyze the country's key commodities based on whether they are locally produced, import-dependent, or supplied through a combination of domestic production and imports, he said while speaking as the chief guest at a meeting on e-commerce implementation at the Commerce Ministry.

Noting that supply disruptions are often a major reason behind price hikes in the market, the minister stressed the need for advance planning to prevent sudden shortages caused by production or import constraints.

"Whether the government decides to reduce prices through subsidies is a separate issue. Our primary goal is to ensure that market instability does not arise due to supply disruptions," he said.

Regular analysis is necessary for commodities such as lentils, onions and other agricultural products by assessing domestic production, seasonal shortages, international market conditions and the production capacity of exporting countries, he said.

If lower domestic production of a commodity is anticipated in a particular year, preparations should begin even before the harvest. At the same time, the production situation and export capacity of countries from which Bangladesh imports should also be taken into consideration, he added.

"We need to know when shortages of a particular commodity may occur, which country would be the best source for imports at a given time, and where prices are comparatively favorable," he said.

To support such decisions, the minister emphasised the need for an AI-based platform capable of analyzing 10 years of market data, production trends, import-export statistics and global market conditions, said the minister.

According to him, the proposed system will significantly reduce the time required for decision-making. At present, information is collected through inter-ministerial meetings, often delaying analysis and policy decisions.

"In the past, obtaining a single piece of information required inter-ministerial meetings and hours of discussion. AI will be able to analyze a decade of data and present likely scenarios within minutes," he said.

The AI platform is expected to forecast when shortages of specific commodities may occur, identify the most suitable countries for imports, assess exporters' supply capacity and recommend the most advantageous time for procurement.

The minister said the initiative would help maintain a stable supply of essential commodities throughout the year.

The Ministry of Commerce will implement the initiative in coordination with the ministries of Agriculture, Food and other relevant agencies, with participating institutions having access to the necessary data, he said.

To improve the effectiveness of the AI system, he said, reliable data sources will be essential. In addition to government data, the platform will draw on international open-source and subscription-based databases to build a comprehensive information repository.

Although developing the system will take time initially, he said it will eventually become faster and more effective than conventional manual analysis.

"The main objective of this initiative is to strengthen our ability to make timely and accurate decisions based on reliable data. This will reinforce market management and help protect consumers' interests," he added.

The meeting also discussed the development of the country's e-commerce sector, technology-driven market management and future action plans.