Hasina’s recent online address clouds prospects of Bangladesh-India ties reset: Ali Riaz

Efforts to reset Bangladesh-India relations have been clouded by deposed prime minister Sheikh Hasina’s August 5 online address from India, with the fallout raising fresh questions over the trajectory of bilateral ties and the prospect of a meeting between Prime Minister Tarique Rahman and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, according to Ali Riaz, former special assistant to chief adviser Muhammad Yunus in the interim government.

In an article on the think tank Atlantic Council titled “Is the Bangladesh–India relationship headed for a reset or a relapse?” published on August 27, he wrote, “The political fallout from that appearance is the latest test in a bilateral relationship that has experienced ebbs and flows in recent years.”

Riaz, also vice-chairman of the National Consensus Commission, noted that the event and the responses of the Indian government have “engendered intense debate” in Bangladesh about the future trajectory of the relationship.

He mentioned that the ties between both countries had already been tense under the interim government between August 2024 and February 2026. But, he said, they appeared to ease after the BNP came to power following the February national election.

Ali Riaz wrote that the ongoing friction over Sheikh Hasina's conviction in Bangladesh has stalled a potential diplomatic reset and meeting between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Rahman.

On August 5, Sheikh Hasina virtually addressed a New Delhi press conference to reject her convictions and the February election, prompting outrage from Bangladesh for insulting its sovereignty and martyrs. India disavowed the event and maintains it is still reviewing Dhaka's repeated extradition requests following her 2025 death sentence, while denying it allowed her to conduct political activities. Meanwhile, Awami League leaders denied UN-backed reports of 1,400 protest deaths, as Bangladesh reiterated its desire for constructive ties despite the friction.

Ali Riaz further writes that a possible trip by the Prime Minister to India next month to attend an outreach session at the BRICS summit of emerging economies is “now uncertain”, even after a meeting between the Indian envoy and the Bangladeshi prime minister on August 10.

On August 20, a Bangladeshi official said that Rahman would not rush to visit India and called for a shift in the “mindset or perspective” of India’s current leadership toward Bangladesh.

Describing the “estranged relationship”, Ali Riaz wrote that the bilateral ties under the interim government were strained because New Delhi had supported Hasina through three widely criticised elections while securing major transit, port, and business advantages without addressing key Bangladeshi demands like fair water sharing and an end to border killings.

Tensions further mounted due to India providing refuge and high respect to Hasina, alarmist Indian media coverage depicting the uprising as an Islamist surge, and New Delhi giving the interim government “the cold shoulder”. Additionally, India signaled reluctance to accept the Yunus administration as representative and repeatedly refused Bangladesh's extradition requests for Hasina, Riaz wrote.

According to Ali Riaz, India’s historical distrust of the BNP temporarily eased after Tarique Rahman’s election through Prime Minister Modi's diplomatic overtures and calls for a relationship "reset." However, New Delhi remains uneasy over Bangladesh’s deepening ties with China – especially regarding Chinese assistance on the Teesta River project near India as well as Dhaka's improving relations with Pakistan and unresolved disputes over border killings, trade, and water sharing. Riaz suggests that despite official denials, India’s hosting and tolerance of Hasina’s political activity may serve as strategic leverage to prevent Bangladesh from drifting further from New Delhi’s orbit.

Ali Riaz argues that India must overhaul its Bangladesh policy by moving toward a state-to-state partnership built on mutual trust, resolving outstanding disputes, and providing clear policy regarding Hasina's presence and political activities on Indian soil.

He writes, “A reset cannot mean simply returning to the era prior to the interim government, as that would only heighten tensions and deepen distrust. A relapse in tensions would be detrimental to both countries and to regional stability.

“It is time to reimagine the relationship as one based on nonintervention and mutual dignity. The new government in Bangladesh appears willing to take that step. Now it’s India’s turn.”