Mecca Pact could give Bangladesh greater diplomatic, economic leverage: Bengal Council

Washington-based think tank The Bengal Council has released a new policy brief examining Bangladesh’s potential association with the Mecca Joint Defense Agreement and its implications for the country’s foreign policy, security and economic interests on Tuesday.

Titled Recasting the Balance: Bangladesh, the Mecca Pact, and the Terms of a New Balance in South Asia, the brief argues that association with the pact could provide Dhaka with greater diplomatic, industrial and economic leverage while allowing it to maintain a balanced foreign policy.

The report examines the potential benefits and risks of Bangladesh joining the Saudi Arabia-Türkiye-Pakistan-led agreement, particularly in the context of the country’s longstanding strategic asymmetry with India.

According to the brief, Bangladesh faces structural constraints due to India’s geographic position and advantages in areas including trade, transit and shared rivers. It argues that association with the Mecca Pact could provide Dhaka with an additional strategic counterweight without making China its sole alternative.

“The central question is not whether Bangladesh should abandon non-alignment, but whether it can strengthen its hand in the relationships that most shape its security,” the brief states.

The report says the pact’s early practice indicates relatively limited risks of military entanglement, while identifying potential benefits in political cooperation, defence-industrial collaboration, military training, maritime capacity and access to Gulf capital.

It identifies complementary strengths among the pact’s three members, with Saudi Arabia bringing financial resources, Türkiye a developed defence industry and Pakistan military capabilities.

However, the brief also highlights several potential risks for Bangladesh, including exposure to conflicts in the Gulf, possible opposition from India, unresolved historical issues between Bangladesh and Pakistan, and the possibility that defence diversification could create another channel for dependence on Chinese-origin military systems.

The Bengal Council recommends that Dhaka, if it chooses to pursue membership, seek clear terms and limitations. Its recommendations include submitting a formal accession request, defining Bangladesh’s obligations as defensive and voluntary, securing parliamentary ratification and establishing safeguards for sensitive intelligence.

The report also recommends reassuring India through concrete proposals on issues such as water, transit and territorial non-use, while adopting procurement standards that prioritise Turkish and other NATO-standard defence systems.

For the United States, the brief argues that support for Bangladesh’s potential accession should not be framed as being directed against India. It says a Bangladesh with greater strategic alternatives could reduce the likelihood of Dhaka becoming overly dependent on Beijing and potentially strengthen its position as a US partner in the Bay of Bengal.

“Indefinite ambiguity would give outside powers time and leverage to shape Bangladesh’s decision,” the brief concludes, arguing that a clearly defined accession process combined with reassurance and careful negotiations could provide greater stability than prolonged uncertainty.

The Bengal Council describes itself as an independent, non-partisan think tank based in Washington, DC, focusing on policy issues related to Bangladesh and the wider Bay of Bengal, including governance, security, economic growth and resilience.