Bangladesh projected to overtake India in per capita GDP this year, IMF estimates

Bangladesh’s per capita gross domestic product (GDP) is estimated to exceed India’s in 2026, according to the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) latest economic outlook, Scroll reported.

The IMF’s October 2026 World Economic Outlook, published on October 13, estimates Bangladesh’s per capita GDP at current prices at $2,886, compared with $2,749 for India.

Per capita GDP measures a country’s economic output relative to its population and is calculated by dividing its total GDP by the number of people living in the country.

The IMF projects Bangladesh to maintain its lead in 2027, with per capita GDP expected to reach $3,219, compared with India’s $3,036. Bangladesh is also projected to remain ahead in 2028.

However, the projections suggest India will overtake Bangladesh again in 2029, when India’s per capita GDP is estimated to reach $3,661, against Bangladesh’s $3,334.

The latest estimates differ from the IMF’s April 2026 outlook, which projected Bangladesh’s per capita GDP at $2,911 and India’s at $2,812 for 2026.

In 2025, India’s per capita GDP stood at $2,670, slightly above Bangladesh’s $2,635. Bangladesh had a higher per capita GDP than India in both 2023 and 2024, according to the data.

The IMF estimates the average per capita GDP of emerging markets and developing economies at around $7,746, while the global average stands at approximately $15,889.

The World Economic Outlook is the IMF’s flagship economic report, generally published twice a year. It analyses global economic trends and provides projections for the near and medium term.