One in seven Bangladeshis to be 65 or older by 2051, straining healthcare and pensions: WB

Bangladesh's working-age population will peak in 2045, leaving the country with a narrowing window to capitalise on its demographic dividend before the population ages, the World Bank warned on Tuesday.

The report, titled Demographic Change in South Asia: From Tailwinds to Headwinds for Development, projects that people aged 65 and above will account for 7% of Bangladesh's population in 2027, marking the country's transition into an ageing society.

Their share is expected to double to 14% by 2051, meaning roughly one in every seven Bangladeshis will be elderly. This will put increasing pressure on the country's healthcare system, pension arrangements and social protection programmes, while reducing the contribution of demographic changes to economic growth.

The report examines whether countries in South Asia can sustain economic growth as their demographic advantages fade and prepare their institutions for rapidly ageing populations.

"South Asian economies are ageing faster and earlier in their development journeys," said Johannes Zutt, World Bank vice-president for South Asia.

"Bangladesh's demographic opportunity depends on what it does now: help firms create better jobs, equip young people with market-relevant skills, and remove barriers that keep women out of work," said Jean Pesme, World Bank division director for Bangladesh and Bhutan.

The report warns that South Asia's demographic advantage is already weakening. The region's working-age population is expected to peak within less than a decade, while South Asia as a whole is projected to become an ageing society by 2049.

"Demographic changes contributed an average of 0.4 percentage points to the region's annual GDP growth since 2000, while labour productivity grew by around 1.1% annually during the period. However, the annual contribution of demographic changes to GDP growth is projected to fall to just 0.1 percentage point through 2050," the report said.

For Bangladesh, the challenge is not simply the rising proportion of elderly people but whether the country can create enough productive jobs, improve workforce skills and strengthen public institutions before its demographic advantage fades.

Around 58 million workers, or approximately 84% of the country's total employed population, work in the informal sector. Even 44% of graduates are employed in informal jobs, according to figures cited in the report briefing.

The report identifies the slow pace of formal job creation, limited employment opportunities for women and gaps in workers' skills as major obstacles to fully benefiting from the remaining demographic dividend.

Growing pressure on social protection and healthcare

As the population ages, Bangladesh will need to expand pension coverage, improve access to affordable healthcare and establish more reliable income support for older citizens.

"Existing social protection arrangements remain fragmented, leaving a large number of elderly people without adequate financial security," the report said. The problem is particularly acute for those who have spent their working lives in informal employment and have had little or no access to formal retirement savings or pension schemes.

The healthcare system will also face rising demand for age-related treatment and long-term care. With healthcare expenditure heavily dependent on out-of-pocket payments by households, rising treatment costs could place additional financial pressure on older people and their families, particularly those on lower incomes.

Policy discussions accompanying the report focused on expanding social protection coverage and improving income security for elderly citizens. Proposals included increasing enrolment from the current level of around 376,000 to five million by 2028 and 15 million by 2030.

The discussions also emphasised strengthening healthcare services for older people, expanding geriatric care and increasing public investment in the health sector to meet the needs of an ageing population.

Other proposals included providing monthly support of 2,500 taka to women to encourage household-based economic activities, such as gardening, livestock rearing and cottage industries.

For persons with disabilities, the proposals called for competency-based training and skills development through local training programmes.

Another proposal involved introducing a Citizen Card to classify households according to their economic status, including poor, ultra-poor and non-poor categories. The system could help improve the targeting of social protection programmes, identify eligible beneficiaries and reduce duplication.

The discussions also highlighted the need for periodic reviews of public social spending to assess whether resources are reaching their intended beneficiaries.