Is NCP going to ‘miss the train’?

French journalist Jacques Mallet du Pan likened revolution to Saturn, the Roman mythical god who devoured his own children to prevent them from overthrowing him. During the French Revolution, he wrote, "A l'exemple de Saturne, la révolution dévore ses enfants." (Like Saturn, the revolution devours its children.)

In 2024 Bangladesh, ruler Sheikh Hasina tried to frustrate the revolution by killing revolutionaries and common citizens alike and prolonging a 'Reign of Terror' but failed. The coordinators of 'Students Against Discrimination' escaped with their lives as the ruler had little time for anything other than escaping the people's wrath.

Just because the French journalist postulated it doesn't mean it would prove true for the July 2024 Bangladesh Revolution. Instead, the young coordinators -- namely Nahid, Asif, Sarjis, Hasnat, Hannan, Mahfuj, Nusrat, Baker, Umama, Arif, Sinthia, Rifat, Hasib, Mahim and others -- emerged as the victorious 'children of the revolution' in its three-week, allegorically flowering phase.

The saplings of mass movement were planted by the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) after Hasina's Awami League (AL) abolished the polls-time caretaker government in 2011 with an ill motive to rig elections and perpetuate her stay in power. Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami quietly watered the plants of resistance against the regime.

Eventually, on 5 August 2024, the revolution attained its initial victory by chasing out Hasina and, more importantly, forcing the collapse of a system that had enslaved Bangladeshis in their own motherland.

As frontline fighters against Hasina's final crackdown, the student coordinators might have driven the subsequent revolutionary changes as well. Two of them were inducted into the interim government, which was neither revolutionary nor joined by other pro-democracy political parties like the BNP.

Before the first anniversary of the 'mass uprising day', they formed their political party -- the National Citizen Party, or NCP. Until then, they had been criticised by the defeated AL forces, but now they came under criticism for being in the government and in party politics simultaneously.

The depletion of popular support for them, or their failure to retain it on campus, was perhaps reflected in their disastrous performance in the student union elections of major public universities, swept by Jamaat-backed Chhatra Shibir. However, after making an electoral alliance with Jamaat, the NCP's young leaders managed to secure six seats in the 300-member elected Jatiya Sangsad (JS, or national assembly) out of the 30 they contested for.

Despite the pre-election consensus on the July National Charter containing a reform agenda, brokered by the Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus-led interim administration, the NCP, as a key player in the revolution, has failed to impel the ruling BNP to implement the agreed proposals first and fast.

Any political observer would conclude that the NCP has lost ground on campus and turned into a six-man army in parliament, though its youthful performance has impressed many. Moreover, its leaders are yet to show credible signs that they are contenders for power next time or a formidable force in the upcoming local government elections.

Neither critics nor party members have come up with an objective assessment of its current status and prospects in power politics. There can be no better phase than the current one for the NCP to consolidate support and grow as an organisation the masses can rely on.

The banned Awami League has already become politically obsolete as its leaders, including chieftain Hasina, fled after being chased by younger people. The BNP, too, has a generation gap that was reflected in the electoral loss of its student front leaders. Jamaat is a conservative outfit that may in future suffer a bonsai syndrome unless entry into it is made flexible.

As Bangladesh's politics is in transition, some Awami support may merge into the BNP while pro-Islami 'Awams' (ordinary men) may even join Jamaat. But there are people, especially younger ones, who might want to align with none of the three. For all these men and women, the NCP has the potential to become the right platform.

And if the NCP fails to grab the opportunity, who will gain those shares? It is perhaps not entirely the BNP and Jamaat. In such a scenario, two new political blocs -- one representing a pro-AL centre of the left with a probability of getting 20-25 seats and the other a centre of the right with more fluctuating prospects -- may come to light. In the 1970s, Jatiya Samajtantrik Dal (JSD) committed suicide instead of offering itself as a democratic alternative and left the field open in the 1980s for the BNP to gain ground and the AL to resurrect itself after its death in the one-party BKSAL system.

What goes wrong with the NCP right now? Its leaders appear tired of routine tasks and may have become preoccupied with their media coverage, especially the audience euphoria surrounding them.

The party has found a number of stars but is yet to create a resource base by recruiting experienced minds and murubbi (senior) faces. It is not possible to show political wisdom without long study of books and society and enduring the crises of life and politics. As a result, despite better communication skills and oratory than many of the student leaders of yesteryear, the NCP leaders may not have been able to turn common people into potential voters. It can test its ability by trying to convince ordinary people why the July Charter is important for the country and its people.

If the party thinks it can triple or quadruple its parliamentary seats to 18-24 in the next (14th) JS elections and then emerge as the most promising political force before the 15th JS polls, that calculation will take the party nowhere near power. New forces may capture the opportunity by then.

The NCP is well-placed to keep in its basket the support of much of the youth below 35 years, the age group of the NCP leadership. It also has a chance of losing its own generation unless it is ideologically hooked in. Its leadership is yet to open up the party to people of diverse groups, professions and ages.

The party and its leaders are said to be suffering from funding constraints. When conventional Bangladeshi parties are criticised for non-transparent campaign financing, the NCP should have offered a transparent and sustainable fundraising model by now to bring changes in politics.

Before missing the historic train or exhausting themselves politically, the NCP leaders can ask themselves why the new as well as old generations in today's Bangladesh will support or join their movement and party without new politics.

Khawaza Main Uddin is a journalist. He can be contacted at khawaza@gmail.