Trump’s Canada trade war threatens Republicans ahead of midterms

President Donald Trump’s escalating trade war with Canada is putting pressure on Republican candidates as the midterm elections approach, threatening the party’s efforts to address voters’ economic concerns in a year when control of the US Senate could hinge on states along the border with the United States’ northern neighbour.

The dispute intensified over the weekend after trade negotiations broke down, prompting Trump to raise tariffs on $20 billion worth of Canadian imports. Canada plans to announce retaliatory tariffs on Tuesday.

The escalating conflict could drive up prices and disrupt supply chains for Americans already frustrated with Trump’s handling of the economy.

Republican Sen Susan Collins of Maine, one of Democrats’ top targets this year, warned that the fallout from Trump’s approach could hurt US businesses and consumers.

“Imposing new tariffs on Canada is a mistake,” Collins said while campaigning on Monday. She pointed to lobsters, blueberries, lumber and other Maine products that are sold in Canadian markets.

The dispute is also putting pressure on Republicans in Michigan, Ohio and Alaska, where Canada is an important trading partner. Democrats appear eager to capitalise on the issue as they seek to regain control of the Senate, despite the party’s own history of protectionist policies.

“Trump is escalating a trade war with Canada for his own vanity,” Michigan Democratic nominee Abdul El-Sayed said on social media. He described his Republican opponent, former Rep Mike Rogers, as a “rubber stamp” for Trump’s policies. About one-third of Michigan’s exports go to Canada.

Marc Short, a senior adviser to then-Vice President Mike Pence during Trump’s first term, said the dispute presents a political dilemma for Republicans.

“It’s hard, obviously, because you don’t want to incur the wrath of the president,” he said. “But at the same time, I think if you’re representing agricultural states, especially, your voters are probably anxious to have somebody representing their interests in Washington right now.”

Trump presses ahead with tariffs

Trump could still change course or delay the planned measures. For now, however, he has shown no sign of backing away from his tariff strategy.

“Canada has been ripping off the United States for years,” Trump wrote on his Truth Social platform on Monday. He said he would raise tariffs on all Canadian automobiles and auto parts, as well as steel, to 50% in 2027.

“WE DON’T NEED CANADA, THEY NEED US!” he added.

US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer struck a more measured tone, downplaying the potential economic impact.

“This is something where we don’t actually expect a huge impact,” Greer told reporters outside the West Wing.

Vice President JD Vance visited Maine on Monday, where he praised “our very independent friend Susan Collins” and assured voters that the administration was “very mindful of the fact that Maine is a border state with Canada”.

He said the administration was working to ensure that Maine “gets a fair deal”.

Collins did not appear with Vance during his visit or on his previous trip to Maine. She campaigned separately as she seeks to fend off Democratic nominee Troy Jackson, a former state legislative leader.

Jackson, who worked as a logger before entering politics, said the tariffs were another example of Collins failing to stand up to Trump.

“Troy spent most of his life working along the Canadian border, so he knows how important this relationship is to Maine’s economy,” said Jackson spokesman Dan Gottlieb.

Republicans seek to protect Senate majority

Trump made his support for tariffs a central part of his comeback campaign, arguing that higher taxes on imports would generate more revenue for the US Treasury and encourage domestic manufacturing.

But concerns over inflation and affordability have persisted, including in states with closely contested Senate races.

Maine, Ohio, Michigan and Alaska have major industries — including fisheries, auto parts, lumber and agriculture — that depend on trade across the northern border. Canadian goods are also sold widely by US retailers.

Iowa, which also has a competitive Senate race, does not share a border with Canada but exports more goods to the country than to any other foreign market.

Majority Forward, a political action committee linked to Senate Democrats, ran television advertisements against Republican Sen Dan Sullivan of Alaska during last year’s partial government shutdown.

“The tariffs are hitting Alaska the hardest,” the ad said. “Call Dan Sullivan and tell him … stop raising our costs.”

Trade emerges as key issue in Ohio

Former Ohio Sen Sherrod Brown is seeking a return to Washington by challenging Republican Sen Jon Husted.

Brown, a long-time ally of organised labour and supporter of some protectionist policies, has criticised Trump’s approach, arguing that it is one thing to take a tougher stance against an economic rival such as China and another to impose unpredictable tariffs on neighbouring countries.

Husted signed a bipartisan letter earlier this year urging the administration to proceed cautiously while renegotiating a trade agreement with Canada and Mexico.

He has also embraced Trump’s economic agenda, recently appearing with Vance at an Ohio steel plant to praise the administration’s policies.

“Today is a new day, it truly is,” Husted said. “It’s a new day because of the ‘America First’ agenda.”

Brown has not yet directly attacked Husted over the Canadian tariffs, instead focusing on his support for data centres and Trump’s war with Iran.

But Senate Majority PAC spokeswoman Lauren French said the dispute fits into the broader Democratic argument against Trump and his Republican allies.

“It’s another proof point for the argument that this is a guy who continues to raise your costs for no reason at all,” she said.

Vance says Trump wants ‘fairness’

Short said Trump’s protectionist policies during his first term were easier for Republicans to defend because they focused largely on China.

During Trump’s second term, however, “we’ve so alienated our normal trading partners that part of their retaliation has been not to buy agricultural products,” Short said, limiting alternative markets for US farmers who lost trade with China.

In Maine, Vance insisted that Trump’s goal was simply to create a more balanced trading relationship with Canada.

“They don’t expect anybody to fight back,” Vance said. “We’re sick of that.”

He also accused Canada of treating China more favourably than the United States in trade negotiations.

“It’s over,” Vance said. “We expect fairness in our trade policy.”

Collins, however, said her priority was restoring the close economic relationship between the two neighbours.

“I really want us to go back to the very friendly, economically beneficial relationship that we have with our Canadian neighbours,” she said.