Trump was warned Iran war could backfire. He went ahead anyway

US President Donald Trump ignored repeated warnings from senior intelligence, military and administration officials that launching a war against Iran could backfire, potentially strengthen hardliners in Tehran, drive up oil prices and overstretch US military resources, according to reports.

Former Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard reportedly warned Trump in February that killing Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei could result in an even more authoritarian government that would be more determined to develop weapons of mass destruction.

Gabbard also reportedly cautioned that Iran could respond to US and Israeli strikes by closing the Strait of Hormuz, driving up global oil prices and retaliating against US allies in the region.

The warnings came as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu pushed for military action, arguing that Iran was at its weakest point and that an opportunity existed to eliminate its nuclear ambitions.

According to a report by The Independent, citing The Wall Street Journal, senior US military officials also warned Trump that a prolonged campaign would result in American casualties, depleted ammunition stocks and overstretched military resources. Vice President JD Vance reportedly shared similar concerns while telling Trump he would support him if he ultimately chose to proceed.

Trump nevertheless opted for military action after Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth, Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Dan Caine and US Central Command chief Adm. Brad Cooper reportedly presented plans for a major operation alongside Israel.

The resulting Operation Epic Fury began on February 28, with Khamenei killed on the first day of the strikes. Trump initially celebrated the operation, but the conflict soon produced many of the consequences his advisers had warned about.

Six months into the war, at least 3,000 Iranians and 18 US service members have reportedly been killed, while another 756 American troops have been injured. Oil prices remain elevated, US military resources have been strained and the Strait of Hormuz remains closed.

The New Republic, citing the same Wall Street Journal reporting, said Trump received warnings from virtually every part of his administration before the conflict. Caine warned that an all-out campaign would overextend US forces and deplete weapons stocks, while Vance also advised against escalation.

The report said Trump has privately expressed frustration and confusion over why the bombing campaign failed to force Tehran to surrender. His administration has since shifted from military threats to economic pressure, with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent leading efforts to impose further sanctions on Iran.

The shift has raised questions over the administration’s original strategy. Eric Brewer, deputy vice president of the Nuclear Threat Initiative, told The Wall Street Journal that the consequences were foreseeable, arguing that the war began without a clear political objective and was followed by poorly handled efforts to end it.

Trump is now under pressure from Gulf allies, including Saudi Arabia and Qatar, to end the fighting, while Republicans at home are increasingly concerned about the war’s impact ahead of the US midterm elections.

The White House has maintained that the campaign severely damaged Iran’s military and nuclear infrastructure and that Trump will not allow Tehran to acquire a nuclear weapon.

“He will never allow Iran to have a nuclear weapon,” White House spokeswoman Olivia Wales said, adding that Iran should agree to a deal or face further consequences.

Trump had initially said the conflict would last around six weeks. It has now entered its sixth month, with efforts to secure a negotiated settlement still unresolved.