Super El Niño breaks temperature record months before expected peak

The current El Niño has already surpassed the highest temperature recorded for the climate phenomenon, months before it is expected to reach its peak, according to the latest data.

Sea surface temperatures in the central Pacific Ocean have reached 3.05C above the 1991-2020 average, exceeding the previous record of 3.02C set in late November 2015, according to data from Climate Reanalyzer.

The preferred measure used by many meteorologists, the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI), which uses a 30-year rolling average and accounts for human-caused global warming, is also close to breaking the 2015 record. It is currently just 0.01C below the previous high. Both measures are based on data from the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

An average of 14 climate models assessed by climate scientist Zeke Hausfather projects that the El Niño could peak at 4.0C in November and December. Such a level would be far beyond previous events, with Hausfather describing the forecast as “mind-blowing”.

El Niño is classified when sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific are at least 0.5C above average, while temperatures above 2C are officially considered a “very strong” El Niño.

Scientists say the unusually strong event is developing against a much warmer global climate caused by greenhouse gas emissions, potentially amplifying its effects on extreme heat, drought, flooding, wildfires and food security.

Hot and dry conditions in Indonesia have already contributed to severe wildfires and hazardous air pollution, while reduced monsoon rainfall has affected parts of India. Drought in Central America and the Caribbean has damaged crops and contributed to lower water levels in the Panama Canal, disrupting trade.

The World Food Programme warned in August that the El Niño could push about 50 million people into acute hunger and contribute to higher food prices.

El Niño can also bring heavier rainfall and flooding to other parts of the world. Peru and Chile have already experienced severe rainfall, while the Horn of Africa and southern parts of the US are expected to face increased rainfall during the coming months.

The southern hemisphere summer is forecast to be hotter and drier, raising the risk of drought and wildfires in Australia and southern Africa. Pacific typhoons could also become more intense, while El Niño typically suppresses Atlantic hurricane activity.

The UN World Meteorological Organization has launched what it described as the largest mobilisation in its 50-year history to support national weather services with forecasts and early warnings as the climate pattern intensifies.

The Guardian reported on Monday that Prof Bill McGuire of University College London described the warming in the equatorial Pacific as “jaw-dropping” and warned it could trigger one of the biggest global weather upheavals in a millennium.

Recent research suggests that human-caused global warming is intensifying El Niño cycles, which can in turn magnify the effects of climate change. Analysis of corals, tree rings and historical records indicates that the current event may be stronger than any El Niño recorded over the past 1,000 years.