Nobel Peace Prize 2026: Trump unlikely to win as war with Iran shapes committee’s choice

US President Donald Trump is unlikely to win this year’s Nobel Peace Prize as he wages war with Iran, but his influence is expected to be felt by the committee selecting the laureate, according to experts.

Last year’s award to Venezuelan opposition leader Maria Corina Machado was unusual in the prize’s 125-year history, coming after repeated lobbying by Trump for the award. Weeks later, Machado gave her Nobel medal to Trump in an effort to win his support for her campaign for a democratic Venezuela.

This year, the five-member Norwegian Nobel Committee may consider whether potential laureates can withstand pressure from Trump, said Haakon Gjerloew, acting director of the Peace Research Institute Oslo.

“I think last year’s events around the Nobel Peace Prize, Maria Corina Machado giving it to Trump afterwards, will affect some of the considerations that they make,” he told Reuters.

“One worry the committee might have is whether awarding it to someone could put them under pressure from Donald Trump ... I think the committee will consider whether the award does more harm than good.”

That could favour figures or institutions such as Pope Leo, the International Criminal Court, the International Court of Justice or Francesca Albanese, the UN special rapporteur on the Occupied Palestinian Territories, experts said. The winner will be announced on October 9.

Leo, the first US-born pope, has said he will continue speaking out against war after Trump called him “weak” for criticising the US conflict with Iran.

His encyclical on artificial intelligence, advocacy for dialogue and peaceful conflict resolution, calls for respect for migrants and humanitarian work could make him a candidate for the prize.

“The Pope stands (for) more than just as a religious figure. He has emerged as a leading thought leader,” Karim Haggag, director of the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, told Reuters.

Albanese, meanwhile, has faced criticism from the US and Israel over her condemnation of Israel’s conduct in its war against Hamas in Gaza and its occupation of the West Bank.

A safer choice?

Last year’s events could also have the opposite effect, with the committee opting for a less controversial choice that would be less likely to antagonise Trump.

Trump has blamed Norway, where the Peace Prize is decided, for not awarding him the prize and has publicly expressed frustration over the decision.

Trump has reportedly been nominated by the leaders of Cambodia, Israel and Pakistan, but his chances were “quite low”, according to Gjerloew.

Trump’s pressure on the Norwegian Nobel Committee has stunned many, including Nobel Peace Prize laureate Maria Ressa, a Filipino-American journalist who said she watched last year’s events with “horror”.

“Bullies don’t run the world,” she told Reuters during a visit to Oslo in September. “There are standards we live by. Might doesn’t make it right.”