One year on, Trump's Gaza plan has not stopped Israeli fire or disarmed Hamas

US President Donald Trump’s year-old plan to end the Gaza war has stalled, with Israel carrying out near-daily attacks and controlling around two-thirds of the devastated enclave, where Palestinians face dire conditions.

The plan’s first phase secured a ceasefire on October 10, 2025, as well as the release of the last remaining hostages seized during Hamas’ 2023 attack on Israel and hundreds of Palestinian prisoners and detainees held by Israel.

But key goals, including Hamas’ disarmament, an Israeli military withdrawal and the reconstruction of Gaza, remain far from being achieved.

What was in the plan?

The first phase of Trump’s 20-point plan called for a suspension of military operations, an Israeli withdrawal from part of Gaza, the release of hostages and Palestinian prisoners, and a major increase in humanitarian aid.

Later phases envisaged Hamas giving up its weapons and Gaza being governed by a Palestinian body overseen by Trump’s Board of Peace. Israel would gradually withdraw, transferring territory to a temporary International Stabilization Force (ISF).

“Gaza will be redeveloped for the benefit of the people of Gaza, who have suffered more than enough,” the plan said.

Has the ceasefire held?

There has been no return to full-scale war, but Israeli strikes have continued. Gaza’s health ministry says at least 1,400 Palestinians have been killed since the October ceasefire, many of them women and children, although it does not distinguish between militants and civilians.

Israel says its strikes have targeted Hamas fighters and accuses the group of attempting to carry out attacks and rearm. Hamas denies the allegations.

Five Israeli soldiers have been killed by Palestinian militants or in combat since the ceasefire, according to the Israeli military.

How much of Gaza does Israel control?

Most of the territory.

Trump’s plan initially envisaged an Israeli withdrawal to a so-called “yellow line”, leaving Israeli forces in control of 53% of Gaza. Since then, Israel has expanded its effective control to around two-thirds of the enclave.

The advancing line has displaced more Palestinians, squeezing Gaza’s population of about 2 million into a shrinking coastal area where many shelter in tents and damaged buildings.

Israel-backed Palestinian militias opposed to Hamas operate from the Israeli-controlled zone and have launched attacks into areas controlled by Hamas.

Have aid flows improved?

Yes, but aid agencies say supplies remain insufficient.

The Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC), a global hunger monitoring system, says more than 1.2 million people in Gaza still face acute hunger despite a major increase in aid operations following the ceasefire.

An August report cited an average of 227 trucks a day carrying humanitarian and commercial supplies into Gaza from the ceasefire through the end of May — less than half the minimum 600 trucks stipulated in Trump’s plan.

Israel says around 600 trucks carrying humanitarian aid and commercial goods enter Gaza each day and that it is meeting its obligations.

Aid agencies, however, say Israel continues to block items including metal tent poles, engine oil and spare parts, citing concerns that Hamas could use them for military purposes.

Is Hamas ready to disarm?

Hamas has indicated a willingness to hand over its weapons under certain conditions, but a plan unveiled in July has stalled.

Trump said Hamas and other Palestinian militant groups had accepted a 15-point roadmap drawn up by the Board of Peace for surrendering their arms. Under the proposal, Israeli forces would withdraw as Hamas disarmed, while the ISF and a new Palestinian security force would provide security in Gaza.

Hamas said it had agreed to hand over its weapons for storage under the control of a US-backed Palestinian technocratic government. Although it rejected the term “disarmament”, the position marked a significant shift for the Iran-backed group.

Israel, which remains sceptical that Hamas will give up its weapons, rejected the proposal and said it would not withdraw until Hamas was fully disarmed.

Has the ISF been formed?

Plans for the International Stabilization Force have advanced, but the force has yet to be assembled.

US Major General Jasper Jeffers has been appointed its commander. Indonesia, Morocco, Kazakhstan, Albania, Kosovo and Uganda have committed personnel.

Jeffers has said the long-term force could include 20,000 troops and train 12,000 Palestinian police officers.

A technocratic Palestinian governing body, the National Committee for the Administration of Gaza, was appointed in January under Ali Shaath, a former deputy minister in the Palestinian Authority. It has yet to enter Gaza.

What about reconstruction?

A year after the ceasefire, Palestinians continue to salvage materials from destroyed buildings to reinforce tents and other shelters.

Trump’s Board of Peace unveiled a $2.45 billion plan in September to begin rebuilding Gaza, but that is only a fraction of the estimated cost.

An EU and UN assessment released in April estimated that Gaza would need $71.4 billion over the next decade for recovery and reconstruction.

What are Israeli politicians saying about Gaza’s future?

While Trump’s plan calls for Palestinians to remain in Gaza, some Israeli right-wing politicians have renewed calls for the mass removal of Palestinians through what they describe as “voluntary emigration”.

Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz said last month there was “no real solution” for Gaza without such migration.

Israel’s Defence Ministry established an office in 2025 to oversee “voluntary emigration” from Gaza, after Trump suggested Palestinians could be permanently displaced. Trump later backed away from the proposal following strong opposition from Arab countries and widespread international rejection.

Israeli officials have said there are no plans to forcibly remove Gaza’s population.

Israel is due to hold a general election on October 27, its first since Hamas’ October 7, 2023 attack. Some leading opposition figures have backed Trump’s Gaza plan, while polls show a close contest between pro- and anti-Netanyahu parties.