Iran shifting tactics to step up attacks on shipping before US vote, officials say

Iran is deploying new tactics to target ships sailing through the Strait of Hormuz in an effort to keep oil prices high and influence the outcome of the US midterm elections in November, two senior Iranian officials told Reuters.

Tehran has sought to tighten its control over the strategic waterway since the United States and Israel launched strikes against Iran on February 28. The strait carried about a fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas trade before the war.

Iran’s threats and attacks have sharply curtailed shipping traffic through the strait, driving up oil prices, although some shipments have continued to pass through.

One of the Iranian officials said Tehran began using different offensive tactics against vessels it considered to be violating its restrictions around 10 days ago, leading to an increase in attacks. The new strategy involves changes in both the types and frequency of attacks, with one objective being to influence the US midterm elections.

“The aim is to frustrate efforts by the United States and its allies to bring down global oil prices,” one official said.

The officials said the decision to adopt the new strategy had been taken at the highest levels of Iran’s leadership and was coordinated across the country’s ruling system.

A US military official, speaking on condition of anonymity, confirmed that Iran had changed its tactics. After US strikes destroyed much of Iran’s radar capabilities, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) began using unarmed spotters in small boats to identify potential targets, including US naval vessels, the official said.

In an incident last week that had not previously been reported, the US military identified Iranian spotters operating from a dhow and relaying target information to the IRGC. US forces confronted the vessel, ordered its occupants to abandon ship and then destroyed it. There were no casualties, the official said.

The US official added that Iran had been unable to prevent an increase in oil exports through the strait, partly because it was unwilling to risk its remaining fast boats after US strikes devastated its navy.

The war, which costs the United States an estimated $3 billion a month, has become a key issue in the campaign for November’s midterm elections, which will determine control of Congress.

US President Donald Trump has been weighing his next steps against Iran but has said he will not launch further attacks before the elections.

Washington has also maintained a naval blockade of Iranian ports and extended sanctions to increase economic pressure on Tehran to reach a deal to end the conflict.

The standoff has left global energy markets vulnerable to further disruption, with the threat of attacks and high shipping and insurance costs complicating efforts to restore normal maritime traffic.

Attacks on commercial vessels still sailing through the strait have surged in recent days to their highest level since the war began, according to independent data.

At least five incidents involving tankers and other commercial ships were reported around the Strait of Hormuz in the past 48 hours, including drone strikes, according to maritime security sources and reports submitted to the British navy-affiliated United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO).

The number of incidents was roughly comparable to the rate recorded between October 3 and 5, suggesting a fresh escalation, according to data from the International Maritime Organization, the United Nations shipping agency.

“There is a tempo increase in strikes, which looks deliberate,” a maritime security source said.

The Iranian officials also said Tehran planned to expand the geographical scope of its operations beyond the Strait of Hormuz to the Gulf of Oman and other waters further afield.

Analysis by maritime security sources, based on incidents reported to UKMTO and regional security companies, suggests that the expansion may already be under way. Recent reports indicate that ships have been targeted in areas beyond the strait, including waters off Qatar and the United Arab Emirates.

The second Iranian official said Tehran would not allow Trump to lower oil prices before the November elections.

“Just when they think they are getting close to the point where prices will fall, we will push them away from it. This is a game of chess,” the official said.

“Such vessels would be safe nowhere, even outside the Strait of Hormuz.”

The Pentagon and Iran’s Foreign Ministry did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

Both Iranian officials said Tehran was moving towards a situation in which no vessel violating its restrictions would be allowed to pass through the strait.

“It will be complete closure soon,” one official said.

In its latest report on Sunday, the US Navy-led Joint Maritime Information Center (JMIC) said the threat to merchant shipping in the Strait of Hormuz remained “severe”, the second-highest threat level.

“IRGC attacks, attempted attacks, and/or harassment activity persisted including UAV overflight, targeted surveillance of merchant shipping, and occasional VHF hailing,” the JMIC said.