Saudi missile plant expansion may produce more powerful missiles, study says

Saudi Arabia appears to be expanding its ballistic missile factory to produce larger solid-fuel missiles capable of travelling farther or carrying heavier payloads, according to two US researchers who analysed more than a year of commercial satellite imagery.

More capable missiles could help the kingdom deter attacks by Iran and reduce its reliance on foreign military technology, while potentially strengthening its position in the conflict with Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi fighters.

However, the expansion could fuel a regional missile race and intensify opposition in the US Congress to a proposed US-Saudi civilian nuclear agreement, which has already raised concerns over nuclear proliferation.

Satellite company Planet Labs captured images of the al-Duwadimi complex, about 200km west of Riyadh, between April 2025 and September 2026.

Sam Lair and Michael Duitsman of the Foreign Policy Research Institute (FPRI), a non-partisan research organisation based in Philadelphia, assessed that the images showed a new building housing casting pits — wells where a mixture of fuel ingredients is poured into missile motor casings and left to harden.

The building, flanked by what appear to be protective walls designed to shield nearby structures from accidental explosions, is at least twice as large as the structure believed to house the facility’s existing casting pits, the researchers said.

A second newly constructed building could be used to store fuel ingredients or finished missile components, they added.

The satellite imagery “suggests that Saudi Arabia is expanding the infrastructure at the missile production complex, likely to produce larger missiles which could deliver larger payloads or reach longer ranges,” the researchers wrote.

Militaries favour solid-fuel missiles because they can be stored for long periods and launched more quickly than liquid-fuel systems.

The Saudi embassy and Information Ministry did not respond to requests for comment.

Possible Chinese technology

The makeup of Saudi Arabia’s missile arsenal suggests that the al-Duwadimi complex relies on Chinese technology, according to Lair and Duitsman and experts from the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) and the CNA research organisation. The FPRI researchers also said the facility’s characteristics resembled those of Chinese missile plants.

Saudi Arabia secretly acquired about 40 Chinese DF-3 liquid-fuel ballistic missiles in 1987, according to a declassified 1991 CIA estimate. The kingdom displayed two of them for the first time during a military parade in April 2014, according to video footage and photographs of the event.

The FPRI researchers recently identified what they assessed to be the wreckage of a Chinese-designed DF-15 missile fired by Saudi Arabia in Yemen, based on social media videos and photographs.

Lair said Saudi Arabia might now be producing the solid-fuel DF-15 and that the expansion at al-Duwadimi was likely intended to support production of the longer-range DF-21 or a similar missile.

Riyadh is believed to have turned to Beijing because Washington has long restricted exports of longer-range missile systems.

The Chinese embassy and defence ministry did not respond to requests for comment. The CIA declined to comment, while the White House did not respond to a request for comment.

Missiles could shift regional balance

Sascha Bruchmann, a research fellow at IISS, said longer-range missiles would allow Saudi Arabia to strike Iran without exposing its US-supplied F-15 fighter jets to Iranian air defences.

“You’d want a system to threaten whatever is holy to Tehran ... if you don’t have the political will to send an F-15 with JDAMs over Tehran,” Bruchmann said, referring to US-made satellite-guided bombs.

“Iran has a lead because its missiles and drones can strike Saudi wherever it wants. The Saudis could close that capability gap a bit,” he said.

Bruchmann, who reviewed the FPRI analysis at Reuters’ request, agreed that the expansion at al-Duwadimi could be intended to support the production of more powerful solid-fuel missiles.

Defence intelligence company Janes also reviewed the analysis, saying the buildings “may suggest an effort to expand production capability or support the development of longer-range missiles”.

Saudi Arabia’s apparent pursuit of more powerful missiles comes as other regional powers seek to expand their offensive and defensive arsenals, said Decker Eveleth, a CNA analyst who has tracked construction at al-Duwadimi using commercial satellite imagery and agreed with the FPRI assessment.

“This is being replicated across the Middle East,” he said. “You see exactly the same thing happening in the UAE. You see exactly the same thing happening in Turkey. Everybody is doing this now.”

The expansion could also have political implications in Washington by strengthening bipartisan congressional opposition to a proposed US-Saudi agreement under which Washington would help Riyadh establish uranium enrichment for civilian power generation.

Opponents argue that the agreement lacks sufficient safeguards to prevent Saudi Arabia from secretly developing a nuclear weapon. The kingdom has denied having any such plans.

Construction began in 2025

According to the FPRI assessment, the satellite imagery shows that expansion at al-Duwadimi began in April 2025, with land clearing and excavation for the suspected storage building. Work on the building believed to contain casting pits began later that month or in early May.

Images from December 12, 2025, showed what the researchers assessed to be two deep pits inside the building, which had not yet been roofed.

In images taken on September 18, 2026, part of the roof was still missing. The photographs also showed what the researchers described as heavy-duty blast-diverting walls on either side of the structure, intended to prevent accidental explosions from damaging nearby buildings.

The walls resemble structures visible in imagery of US and Iranian missile facilities, the researchers said, providing further evidence that the building is intended for casting solid-propellant missile motors.

Completing the roofs would not take long, according to the FPRI assessment, but installing the casting equipment could take several months. The facility could be ready to begin producing missiles as early as the end of this year.