Trump faces midterm verdict with control of Congress at stake

American voters will deliver a verdict on the first two years of President Donald Trump’s second term in Tuesday’s midterm elections, with polls and nonpartisan analysts favouring Democrats to regain control of the House of Representatives from Republicans, while control of the Senate remains uncertain.

The battle for the Senate is unfolding across nearly 10 closely contested statewide races, most in Republican strongholds.

History is against Trump’s Republicans, as the party of the sitting president has lost ground in Congress in all but two midterm elections since World War II. Trump’s approval rating is hovering near its all-time low, dragged down by voter frustration over the war with Iran and the resulting rise in fuel prices.

There is little doubt that this year’s election is centred on Trump, who has been the dominant figure in US politics for most of the past decade. Trump has repeatedly urged supporters to “pretend I’m on the ballot”, a message Democratic leaders have echoed.

The president has sought to energise his base with more than two dozen campaign rallies since early October, most of them in states he comfortably won in 2024, highlighting the extent to which Republicans are on the defensive.

Led by Trump, Republicans have portrayed Democratic candidates as radical, un-American and even communist.

“The Democrat Party has nominated the most extreme and dangerous slate of candidates in American history,” Trump said on Monday during a speech in Washington.

However, opinion polls show that voters are most concerned about affordability and disapprove of Trump’s handling of the issue. His sweeping tariff policy and decision to attack Iran in February have increased domestic costs. Republican candidates, meanwhile, have struggled to distance themselves from a president who demands loyalty and rarely acknowledges mistakes.

All 435 seats in the House of Representatives are up for election, along with 35 of the Senate’s 100 seats, although most contests are not considered competitive. Democrats must gain at least three House seats and four Senate seats to secure a majority in each chamber.

A Democratic-controlled House or Senate could launch investigations into what Democrats describe as self-dealing by the Trump administration and demand concessions in exchange for approving legislation.

A Democratic Senate would also have the power to block Trump’s appointments, including nominations to the US Supreme Court if vacancies arise.

Although Democrats have put Republicans on the defensive in several traditionally Republican states, they have little margin for error. The party must defend all its current seats, including a closely contested race in Michigan, while winning at least two states that voted for Trump by double-digit margins in 2024: Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Nebraska, Ohio, South Carolina and Texas.

Opinion polls show Democrats either narrowly leading or within striking distance in all those states.

Michigan race roiled by cross-party endorsement

The Michigan Senate contest between progressive Democrat Abdul El-Sayed, 42, and Republican former US Representative Mike Rogers, 63, took an unexpected turn on Sunday when Democrat Haley Stevens, who narrowly lost to El-Sayed in the party’s primary, endorsed Rogers.

Beyond its implications for control of the Senate, the race is a high-profile test of whether Republican attacks targeting El-Sayed’s identity — he would become the country’s first Muslim senator — will prove effective in a battleground state.

A victory for El-Sayed, who has criticised Israel and supports liberal policies such as universal healthcare, would also be seen as a boost for the Democratic Party’s left wing ahead of the 2028 presidential election.

The Alaska Senate race has also been caught up in controversy after The New York Times reported that the campaign of Democratic candidate Mary Peltola, 53, helped recruit a third candidate who shares the first and last name of her Republican opponent, Dan Sullivan, 61.

Peltola has denied involvement. Trump’s Justice Department has launched a criminal investigation into the allegations and filed a lawsuit seeking to block certification of the election results. A judge dismissed the lawsuit.

In Texas, Democratic Senate candidate James Talarico, 37, has revived his party’s hopes of winning the country’s largest Republican state after decades of unsuccessful attempts.

His opponent, Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton, 63, has faced a series of scandals but has benefited from a nine-figure investment by billionaire Elon Musk, who has spent hundreds of millions of dollars supporting Republican candidates.

In Kansas, Democrat Adam Hamilton, 62, a megachurch pastor, held a narrow polling lead over Republican Senator Roger Marshall, 66. The state voted for Trump by more than 16 percentage points in 2024 and has not elected a Democratic senator in nearly a century.

In Maine, Republican Senator Susan Collins, 73, is seeking to win a sixth term despite her state’s Democratic leanings. She faces Democrat Troy Jackson, 58, a former state Senate president who unexpectedly became the party’s nominee after oyster farmer Graham Platner withdrew from the race following allegations of misconduct, which he denied.

Other competitive Senate races are taking place in Iowa, Nebraska, Ohio and South Carolina, all involving Republican-held seats.

Trump’s Justice Department intervenes

There are 47 House races widely considered competitive, according to a Reuters analysis of leading election forecasters. If the other contests proceed as predicted, Democrats would need to win only 13 of those races to secure a majority.

The battle for the House has largely been fought on Republican turf, including districts Trump carried by double-digit margins in 2024. A Trump-backed Republican effort to redraw electoral districts in several states to make them safer for the party appears to have fallen short of the gains expected by the White House.

Democrats have warned that Trump, who has repeatedly and falsely claimed that US elections are rigged, may attempt to challenge Tuesday’s results if Republicans lose.

In addition to its actions in Alaska, Trump’s Justice Department filed a lawsuit in California seeking to block ballots it considers potentially invalid. The move breaks with decades of practice intended to shield elections from political influence. The US Supreme Court on Monday rejected the administration’s request for an emergency order in the case.

Thirty-six gubernatorial elections will also take place on Tuesday, along with thousands of state legislative contests and ballot measures covering issues ranging from a tax on billionaires to abortion rights.