Democratic Congress could test decades of US support for Israel

Democrats' takeover of Congress and growing unease among Republicans over Israel could trigger the biggest reassessment of US support for its closest Middle Eastern ally in decades, following an election shaped partly by public anger over the war with Iran.

Democrats won control of both the Senate and the House of Representatives in Tuesday's midterm elections. Many of the successful candidates were progressives who campaigned against military aid to Israel and the US-Israeli war on Iran.

Israel's military campaign in Gaza and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's close ties with President Donald Trump and other Republicans had already strained decades of bipartisan support for Israel.

Democratic control of Congress could bring greater scrutiny of US military aid to Israel and violence in the occupied West Bank, as well as congressional hearings and challenges to Trump's nominees. However, the president's veto power limits the party's ability to force major policy changes.

Among the progressive candidates who won was Abdul El-Sayed of Michigan, the first Muslim elected to the US Senate. His campaign drew Republican attempts to appeal to Jewish voters who might have been uncomfortable with his faith and criticism of Israel.

There were also signs that Republicans could reconsider their party's traditional support for Israel.

On Wednesday, Vice President JD Vance blamed the Republican election losses partly on the war with Iran and identified Israel as an issue for the party.

In a social media post, he cited a pollster's assessment that four actions could bring back disgruntled Trump voters: "1) End the war 2) Focus on cost of living/inflation 3) Put America First 4) Change our relationship to Israel."

Trump told Fox News on Tuesday that he had reached an agreement with Netanyahu for Washington to end its annual security assistance to Israel.

However, it was not immediately clear whether Trump had the legal authority to halt the billions of dollars in military assistance the United States provides to Israel each year.

Policy towards Israel has also emerged as a generational divide in US politics. Opinion polls show that younger voters, including some Republicans, believe Washington has been too supportive of Israel and insufficiently supportive of Palestinians.

Sentiment shifting

Congressional sentiment towards Israel had already begun shifting. In September, 46 of the 47 members of the Senate Democratic caucus voted for a resolution requiring the Trump administration to report to Congress on increasing violence against Palestinians by Israeli settlers in the West Bank.

Republicans blocked the measure, but the near-unanimous Democratic vote marked a significant departure from decades of consistent bipartisan support for Israel.

Democrats are expected to renew their focus on violence in the West Bank.

"We need to make sure that we apply our laws and international law and our policies uniformly across the board when it comes to the actions of countries. There should not be an Israel exception," said Democratic Senator Chris Van Hollen of Maryland, who has led efforts to impose human rights conditions on US aid to Israel.

However, Democrats' influence remains limited. Trump has vowed to be "Mr Veto", and the party is unlikely to secure the two-thirds majority needed in both chambers to override his vetoes.

Still, resistance to sending US taxpayer money abroad and public anger over the Iran war could encourage the Republican Party's "America First" faction to challenge traditional support for Israel.

The election results could bring together unlikely allies from both sides of the political spectrum in opposition to Israel, said Price Floyd, a former US official and senior adviser at London-based strategic communications firm Argyll Strategy.

Democrats prepare to turn up pressure

Control of both chambers will also allow Democrats to summon administration officials to public hearings, an opportunity rarely available under Trump's Republican-controlled Congress.

"What Congress can do is they can make ... a lot of noise. They can threaten to hold up nominees. They can create lots of questions about various assistance deals and force the president to do waivers (if he lifts sanctions)," said William Wechsler, senior director of Middle East programmes at the Atlantic Council.

Opinion polls showed that the war with Iran was a major issue in the midterm elections. Many Americans blamed rising prices, particularly for gasoline, on the conflict Trump launched in February.

Jonathan Schanzer, executive director of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, a think tank that advocates a strong US-Israel alliance, said changes in Israel's political leadership could also alter the tone of relations between the two countries.

Netanyahu lost his governing majority in an Israeli election on October 27 but denied his opponents a clear path to removing him from power. Negotiations to form a new government are expected to be prolonged.

A new Israeli government, particularly one less closely aligned with Republicans, could adopt a more cooperative approach towards Democrats, Schanzer said.

"Nothing is going to change in the United States until January when Congress takes their seats and by then, there may be a new Israeli government that would also have an impact on this," he said.