The Teesta River Comprehensive Management and Restoration Project emerged as the centrepiece of the agreements signed during Prime Minister Tarique Rahman's four-day visit to China, with Beijing pledging to support the long-delayed project "to the best of its ability."
The announcement has revived one of Bangladesh's biggest river infrastructure plans, but experts say its long-term success will depend on a factor that lies beyond Chinese financing and engineering…that is securing adequate upstream water from India.
The renewed push comes after nearly 15 years of failed attempts to conclude a Teesta water-sharing treaty with India.
With negotiations repeatedly stalled, largely over opposition from West Bengal, Dhaka is now seeking to move ahead with a domestic river management project to address chronic flooding, erosion and irrigation shortages in the country's northern region.
However, water experts say the project faces a fundamental hydrological constraint. The Teesta originates in the Himalayas before flowing through India's Sikkim and West Bengal into Bangladesh, where most of its dry-season flow is controlled by India's Gajaldoba Barrage and a series of upstream hydropower projects.
The consequences, experts pointed out, are twofold. During winter, reduced flows leave vast stretches of the riverbed dry, lowering groundwater levels, disrupting irrigation and affecting agriculture across the Rangpur region. During the monsoon, sudden upstream releases frequently trigger floods that wash away homes, cropland and embankments.
The proposed Chinese-backed project seeks to reduce these extremes through more than 100 kilometres of river dredging, flood-control embankments, reservoirs to retain seasonal water, irrigation canals and river training works, said the experts.
While the infrastructure is expected to improve flood management and make better use of water entering Bangladesh, experts say it cannot compensate for water that never reaches the country.
Former Bangladesh ambassador to China Munshi Faiz Ahmad told Daily Waadaa that Bangladesh can proceed with China, but implementing the project without an understanding with India carries significant risks.
"If we design the project assuming no water will come, that is one thing. But if India later releases water, we could face problems. Again, if we build it assuming we will receive the water we need, but that water does not come, we will also face problems," he said.
Ambassador Munshi Faiz said parts of the project could still work, but its overall “effectiveness would remain limited without predictable upstream flows.” Bangladesh and India would eventually need to restore relations and reach a comprehensive understanding on Teesta water, he added.
The project has already undergone two feasibility studies, in January 2019 and June 2023. China had previously completed a feasibility assessment before political changes stalled progress.
Following Sheikh Hasina's China visit in July 2024, she said she preferred India to implement the project. After the interim government assumed office, discussions with Beijing resumed, accompanied by eight public hearings.
In January 2025, former adviser Syeda Rizwana Hasan said implementation would begin by December that year.
Despite the previous studies, questions remain over whether sufficient hydrological data exists to determine the project's final design.
During the interim government's tenure, Planning Adviser Wahiduddin Mahmud questioned how a mega-project could be properly designed without a scientifically backed assessment of future transboundary water availability.
Water experts note that key engineering decisions—including reservoir capacity, embankment height and irrigation potential—depend on long-term projections of water entering Bangladesh, which remain uncertain without cooperation from the upstream country.
River expert Dr Maminul Haque Sarker told Daily Waadaa that involving India would strengthen the project because Bangladesh shares many transboundary rivers with its neighbour and water disputes require continued negotiations.
He said every river project should first establish whether its “principal objective is flood control, irrigation, navigation or erosion management before deciding on engineering solutions such as dredging, barrages or reservoirs.”
Mohammad Azaz, chairman of the River and Delta Research Centre, said the earlier feasibility study under the Teesta River Comprehensive Management Plan proposed erosion control and land reclamation.
It also included navigation improvement, new urban settlements on reclaimed land and structures to retain water, he added.
Azaz told Daily Waadaa that China has “successfully managed major rivers such as the Yangtze and Yellow River, and similar engineering approaches could be adapted in Bangladesh.”
Azaz said the Teesta's braided river system, shifting channels and heavy sediment loads make river management particularly difficult, while unpredictable releases from India's Gajaldoba Barrage remain the project's biggest challenge.
He said Bangladesh is free to implement a civil engineering project within its own territory with any development partner, including China, and India does not have to be formally involved. Engineers can also rely on 10 to 15 years of historical flow data to design the infrastructure.
"But this project can only provide a partial solution," Azaz said. "Ultimately Bangladesh will still need a water-sharing agreement with India to secure adequate upstream flows. Without that, the project alone cannot solve Teesta's water problem."
Sheikh Rokon, secretary general of Riverine People, said the new feasibility study mentioned in the Bangladesh-China joint communique is expected to involve Bangladeshi experts, unlike the previous assessment conducted by 58 Chinese specialists only.
He told Daily Waadaa that India's failure to conclude the long-pending Teesta treaty pushed Bangladesh towards China. He argued that the project would benefit from a broader framework involving China, India, the Netherlands, the World Bank, JICA and ADB, alongside local experts and communities.
Offering a different view, Dhaka University international relations professor Dr Shahiduzzaman said Bangladesh should begin implementation “immediately with Chinese support.”
He told Daily Waadaa that China alone has the engineering and financial capacity to deliver the project and argued that Beijing's upstream position on the Brahmaputra could eventually provide “leverage to encourage India to ensure Bangladesh receives a fair share of Teesta water.”
The Teesta debate also reflects a wider challenge for Bangladesh, where nearly all major rivers originate outside its borders.
Water experts say the same structural constraint applies to other proposed projects, including the Padma Barrage, because domestic infrastructure cannot create water in the absence of guaranteed upstream flows.
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