Economists have expressed doubts about the government's ability to simultaneously accelerate economic growth and reduce inflation in FY2026-27, arguing that deep structural weaknesses could make the budget's key economic targets difficult to achieve.

The proposed budget targets 6.5% GDP growth and 7.5% inflation in the coming fiscal year. The economy grew by 4.14 percent in the current fiscal year followed by a 3.49 percent growth in the previous year.

Selim Raihan, executive director of SANEM, said the goals were attractive but achieving them together would be challenging.

"The FY27 goals of 6.5% growth and 7.5% inflation are attractive but hard to achieve together, especially amid weak growth, high inflation, tight credit, banking stress, energy risks and subdued private investment," he said.

According to Raihan, reducing inflation and accelerating growth require different policy conditions that are not always easy to reconcile.

"Lowering inflation demands restraint, better supply management and exchange-rate stability, while raising growth requires stronger investment, credit flow, exports and faster ADP execution," he said.

Former World Bank lead economist Zahid Hussain echoed the concern, arguing that Bangladesh's problem is not primarily a lack of spending but constraints on production.

"The simultaneous targets of raising economic growth from 4.14% to 6.5% while reducing inflation to 7.5% appear difficult to achieve under current economic conditions," he said.

Hussain said businesses continue to face a range of obstacles, including energy shortages, import restrictions, foreign exchange pressures, weak investment and other structural bottlenecks.

"In this situation, encouraging more spending and investment does not automatically lead to a large increase in production," he said.

"If factories cannot obtain enough raw materials, if firms face power shortages, or if imports are constrained by a lack of foreign exchange, the economy cannot respond quickly by producing significantly more goods and services."

As a result, he warned, higher demand could end up fuelling inflation rather than generating the desired increase in output.

"When supply cannot keep pace, more money chases the same amount of goods. Inflation rises, but economic growth improves only modestly," Hussain said.

He noted that bringing inflation down usually requires tighter monetary and fiscal policies, which can themselves weigh on economic activity in the short term.

"This is why the two targets may be difficult to achieve simultaneously," he said. "Raising growth from 4.14% to 6.5% while reducing inflation requires not just more spending, but a significant improvement in the economy's ability to produce."

The budget outlines a strategy centred on private investment, manufacturing, exports and improved revenue mobilisation. It also sets ambitious longer-term goals, including 8.5% economic growth by FY2030-31.

However, Raihan cautioned that those longer-term ambitions would require much deeper reforms.

"The 8.5% growth target for 2031 is even more ambitious, needing major gains in private investment, productivity, logistics, human capital and financial-sector recovery," he said.

"Without these shifts, the target risks remaining aspirational."

Both economists suggested that the success of the government's economic strategy will depend less on headline targets and more on its ability to address underlying constraints facing businesses, investment and production.