Bangladesh’s economy remained resilient in September, with agriculture recording its 13th consecutive month of expansion and business expectations across all four major sectors pointing to a positive outlook for the months ahead.
The overall Bangladesh Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) stood at 48.6 in September, reflecting an ongoing adjustment in economic activity, according to the PMI released on October 7 by the Metropolitan Chamber of Commerce and Industry (MCCI), Dhaka, and Policy Exchange Bangladesh (PEB).
Agriculture remained the main source of strength, with the sectoral PMI reaching 55.2. Although the pace of expansion slowed from August, new business, business activity and employment continued to grow, underscoring the sector’s role in supporting the broader economy.
The continued expansion in agriculture also points to resilience in rural demand and production despite persistent cost pressures.
Manufacturing recorded a PMI of 44.8 in September, indicating contraction during the month. However, employment returned to marginal expansion, suggesting some resilience in the labour market and scope for improvement as business conditions strengthen.
Construction recorded a PMI of 48.5, while services stood at 49.0. Both sectors remained close to the 50-point threshold separating expansion from contraction, indicating that activity could regain momentum as demand conditions improve.
Services, in particular, recorded only a marginal contraction, leaving the sector close to returning to expansion.
Businesses reported several positive developments, with a number of firms expecting activity to improve in the coming months on the back of confirmed orders, reliable buyers and stronger seasonal demand ahead of the winter and peak business season.
The Future Business Index showed expansion across all four sectors, signalling positive business confidence and expectations for the months ahead.
Businesses nevertheless continue to face challenges from higher fuel and oil prices, rising input and operating costs, weaker consumer purchasing power, energy supply constraints and limited access to financing.
The report said addressing these constraints could help unlock stronger growth momentum across the economy.
Overall, the PMI findings suggest that Bangladesh’s economy is going through a period of adjustment, while significant areas of resilience remain. Continued agricultural expansion, the proximity of manufacturing, construction and services to the expansion threshold, and positive future business expectations provide a foundation for a gradual recovery in economic activity.
Commenting on the September PMI, the report said Bangladesh’s economic dynamism remained supported by agriculture’s continued expansion, while positive expectations across all four sectors provided a basis for recovery.
It emphasised that stronger domestic and export demand, reliable energy supplies, improved access to finance and efforts to contain cost pressures would help businesses expand activity and restore broader economic momentum.
The Bangladesh PMI is a pioneering initiative developed by MCCI and Policy Exchange Bangladesh, with support from the UK Government and technical assistance from the Singapore Institute of Purchasing & Materials Management (SIPMM). It provides timely insights into economic activity to support decision-making by businesses, investors and policymakers.