A satirical cartoon magazine styled Cocktail was popular on the Dhaka University campus in the 1980s. One of its issues depicted military dictator General Hussain Muhammad Ershad addressing a student rally and saying: "I will build you more residential halls, I will increase your dining allowances, if you chant a slogan 'Long live President Ershad, only once!'."

Within minutes, chased by student protestors, Ershad was seen fleeing the campus and going back to the cantonment.

This happened, according to the magazine, in the imagination of the dictator, who was ousted in the 1990 pro-democracy uprising. For Ershad's political "sister" Sheikh Hasina, cultivated by India, that imagined chase turned into reality on 5 August 2024.

There are rumours on social media these days that she plans to return to Bangladesh next December. But what could she offer the nation this time around? She has nothing left in her political treasury. She had exhausted every possible promise between her return from exile in 1981 and her election victory in 2008. Few transgressions are left for her party to commit either.

Prior to the 1996 elections, Hasina implicitly sought apologies for the power abuse by the 1972–1975 Awami League regime of her father, Sheikh Mujibur Rahman. She begged for only one chance to govern. By the 2008 elections, her party’s manifesto promised everything to allure the electorate: institutional democracy, human rights, a corruption-free government, transparency, and inclusive development.

In her subsequent 15-year rule, Hasina admitted she gave India far more than she received. Her belief that New Delhi would not abandon her has been vindicated by the safe haven and diplomatic cover she is entitled to in India.

To the people of Bangladesh, too, her government delivered a set of gifts: stock market scams, systemic banking fraud, the world's largest cyber heist and most catastrophic industrial accident, and a record of enforced disappearances, extrajudicial killings, and mass atrocities. Hasina "liberated" the people from the trouble of voting.

Is there any promise that Hasina and her partymen want to get rid of their dark past?

Since she is a politician, though president of a banned Awami League, it is relevant for her to inform her audiences of policy shifts, if any. Her regime spent years manufacturing a facade of legitimacy, and she may still consider herself the rightful prime minister, at least within her inner circle.

The political landscape has shifted -- Bangladesh is now governed by an administration chosen in an election in line with the mandate of a revolution. If Hasina wants to return without being harmed, she would either have to dismantle the current democratic setup entirely, or seek a presidential clemency alongside political concession from the ruling BNP, Jamaat-e-Islami, and other opposition parties.

History suggests the prospect of her participating in democratic politics stretches credulity, given a consistent pattern: the 1972–1975 Awami League rule culminated in the suppression of dissent and the establishment of a one-party (BKSAL) state. After returning to power in 1996, the party did not hesitate in patronising partisan nepotism.

Following the 2008 election victory, the AL systematically captured state institutions and stripped people of fundamental rights, before committing a genocide that culminated in the July–August uprising and her fall from the eden.

Her sympathisers argue that the AL retains a legitimate right to participate in politics, pointing to its estimated 20 million party workers, supporters and voters. Their standpoint ignores the moral weight of the regime's atrocities.

While the party is widely recognised as a political mafia in post-revolution Bangladesh, their arguments are obscured by conspiracy theories and a refusal to acknowledge the abuses documented by the United Nations.

The revolution has forged a national consensus: the party that used anti-democratic means to entrench its power has forfeited its right to do politics in a democratic system. Nearly 80 million Bangladeshis who voted for the BNP, Jamaat-e-Islami, and other parties have to be disfranchised only to accommodate the Awami League's return, defying the political logic of modern civilization.

Instead of debating phantom rights, democratic activists should examine what an Awami League return would mean to democrats. Since the AL leaders are out of sight, their online support base offers some rhetoric and, based on that and records, a draft of their unwritten, up-to-date manifesto would likely look like this:

"The interim and elected administrations that succeeded the 2024 collapse will be declared illegal, and state institutions restructured to uphold the AL ideology. The leadership of the July revolution and its supporters will be labelled as extremists, and those who advocated for democratic transition excluding the AL will be prosecuted.

Public officials who failed to protect the Hasina administration but collaborated with the interim government or showed allegiance to the government of Prime Minister Tarique Rahman will face disciplinary actions.

Any critique of the party's historical narrative will be treated with zero tolerance. Unconditional loyalty to the legacy of Sheikh Hasina and her family will be a prerequisite for holding public office and leading social organisations.

In order to ensure economic stability and fulfill people's material needs, businesses will be provided incentives to maximise profits. Law enforcement and policymakers will be given immunity from allegations of corruption, extortion, and human rights abuses to ensure unchallenged policy execution.

Criticism of foreign influence on domestic matters will be considered as treason, and maintaining exclusive relations with India will remain the cornerstone of our foreign policy."

When artificial intelligence models were asked to predict the Awami League's future strategy, they could not produce creative results but highlighted the contradiction between the party's promises and governance records.

The machine cannot read Hasina and Awami Leaguers' minds, but the public can. The younger generation of Bangladeshis understands what agendas would be revived, should the banned party ever be permitted to resume its activities.

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Khawaza Main Uddin is a journalist. He can be contacted at khawaza@gmail.com.